SAN ANTONIO – The question looming Friday following the major political parties’ conventions the past two weeks is whether they made a difference in the voters’ way of thinking.
“They may have solidified some people who were thinking or leaning in one direction, but a large number of people had already made up their minds before the conventions even began,” said David Crockett, a Trinity University political science professor.
Crockett said one element that set this year’s conventions apart for both parties was the “insurgent faction.”
“On the Republican side, the establishment decided, ‘OK, this is who we have.’ And for the most part united behind him, Ted Cruz notwithstanding,” Crockett said. “On the Democratic side, it was the insurgents who had to come to terms with the establishment winning.”
“For the most part, I think they’ll fall in, but you saw some dissent at the convention this week,” Crockett predicted.
Looking ahead to the November election, he said, “There are some people for whom this is simply an unacceptable choice.”
As for voter turnout, Crockett predicted that it will fall short of the 60 percent turnout in 2008.
“I suspect that it will drop a bit, unless the fear of one of the two candidates is so pervasive that it drives people to the polls,” Crockett said.
He said, “Often times, I think, people’s vote is dictated more by fear or anger than by love or hope.”