Presidential debate unlikely to have changed minds

UTSA professor says most have already picked a candidate by now

SAN ANTONIO – With millions of eyes and countless hours of preparation, a presidential debate is an undeniably huge event. Its stakes though, might not be.

More than 80 million people tuned in Monday night to watch Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump square off in a new record for televised presidential debates. But an assistant professor of political science says it's unlikely many of them changed their mind by what they saw.

"Political scientists for a long time have said 'well, we don't think debates actually have a huge impact on the outcome of an election,'" Brian Gervais said.

Gervais specializes in American political behavior, political communication and political psychology at the University of Texas at San Antonio. He doesn't expect much to change in the race after the first debate.

"I don't think the debate changed anyone's mind last night," he said. "I don't think any Trump supporters are coming to the Clinton camp or vice versa."

Most voters by now, Gervais said, have made up their minds, and nothing short of a disaster would have changed them.

"I think the vast majority of people who tuned in weren't people who didn't have their minds made up," he said. "They sort of tuned in to cheere their candidate on - cheer their team on."

The debate didn't cause any 180-degree changes in people KSAT talked with on Tuesday

"I have been following this for quite a while, and I've already made my choice," said Simon Nicholson, a Clinton supporter.

"I think we've pretty much seen them from the beginning from the time they started running til now," said Trump supporter Janet Ballentine.

The debate could have had an effect on undecided voters. Gervais thinks Clinton will see a bump after the debate, but it would be far from a permanent gain, and this campaign is far from over.

"There's going to be other debates," Gevais said. "There's going to be other events. And this won't be deterministic."


About the Author:

Garrett Brnger is a reporter with KSAT 12.