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NFL Preview - Green Bay (10-1) At Dallas (10-1)

POSTED: Tuesday, November 27, 2007

(Sports Network) - Inside position in the race for homefield playoff advantage will be the chief enticement at Texas Stadium on Thursday night, when the Dallas Cowboys welcome the Green Bay Packers to town in a pivotal battle between 10-1 teams.

The Cowboys and Packers share the second-best record in the NFL, behind only 11-0 New England, and don't have another NFC team within three games of them as Week 13 begins.

Homestanding Dallas, which has won five in a row since sustaining its only loss of the year to the Patriots, is three games ahead of the New York Giants in the NFC East. Wade Phillips' squad swept a home-and-home with the Giants earlier this season, meaning their magic number to win the division currently stands at two games. A win for the Cowboys on Thursday and a loss for New York on Sunday in Chicago would hand Dallas its first division crown since 1998.

But a victory over the Packers, which would also give America's Team its first 11-win season since 1995, hardly figures to come easy for Phillips and company.

Green Bay makes its way to the Lone Star state having won six in a row following its only loss of the year against Chicago, and moved to 5-0 on the road this season with a 37-26 takedown of Detroit on Thanksgiving Day.

That triumph extended the Packers' lead to four games in the NFC North, and a win over Dallas coupled with a Lions loss at Minnesota on Sunday would spell Green Bay's first division title since the 2004 campaign.

Mike McCarthy's team, which has won 14 of its last 15 games dating back to last year, will also be vying for its first 11-win season since 2002 on Thursday night.

SERIES HISTORY

The all-time regular season series between Dallas and Green Bay is knotted, 10-10, with the Packers evening the series by virtue of a 41-20 win when the teams last met, at Lambeau Field in 2004. The Cowboys won the previous matchup, scoring a 27-13 win at Texas Stadium in 1999. Green Bay is 0-5 in regular season games played in Dallas since last winning there in 1989.

In addition to their regular season history, the clubs have met six times in the postseason, with Dallas holding a 4-2 edge. The Cowboys have won four straight playoff games against Green Bay since the 1967 NFL Championship, better known as the "Ice Bowl." Dallas' most recent playoff win over Green Bay was a 38-27 triumph for the 1995 NFC Championship.

Phillips is 1-1 in his career against the Packers, scoring a win against them while with the Bills in 2000 and a loss while with the Broncos in 1993. The Packers' McCarthy will be meeting both Phillips and the Cowboys for the first time as a head coach.

WHEN THE PACKERS HAVE THE BALL

Green Bay quarterback Brett Favre (3356 passing yards, 22 TD, 8 INT) has experienced a personal renaissance in 2007, but will face fewer questions about that this week than about his career-long struggles at Texas Stadium. Favre is 0-8 in Dallas since first appearing there in 1993, including 0-3 in playoff games between 1993 and 1995, and has lost all eight Irving appearances by double-digits. On Thursday, the future Hall-of-Famer will look to a strong receiving corps headed by veteran Donald Driver (63 receptions, 2 TD) and youngsters Greg Jennings (39 receptions, 9 TD) and James Jones (40 receptions, 2 TD), along with tight end Donald Lee (39 receptions, 4 TD), to help him end his drought in Big D. Driver turned in a 10-catch, 147-yard outing against the Lions on Thanksgiving, and Jennings scored two touchdowns in the victory. A running game that once ranked last in the league has come along nicely since Ryan Grant (494 rushing yards, 2 TD, 24 receptions) entered the lineup. The first-year player out of Notre Dame has gone over 100 yards in three of his last five appearances, and has also been a capable pass-catching threat out of the backfield. A young offensive line has allowed Favre to be sacked just 14 times all year.

Favre and his receivers will want to take some shots downfield against a Dallas defense that counts deep coverage as perhaps its greatest liability. Cornerbacks Terence Newman (31 tackles, 3 INT) and Anthony Henry (17 tackles, 5 INT) have both made their share of plays this year, but safeties Roy Williams (66 tackles, 2 INT) and Ken Hamlin (43 tackles, 4 INT) have not been of the greatest assistance to the team's pass-defending efforts. Newman had a 50-yard interception return for a touchdown against the Jets last week. The Cowboys are just 21st in the league against the pass (217 yards per game) despite the solid work of a pass rush that has managed 30 sacks through 11 games. Outside linebacker Greg Ellis (19 tackles, 8.5 sacks) posted two sacks of New York's Kellen Clemens last week, growing closer to fellow LB Demarcus Ware (63 tackles, 9 sacks) on the team list in that category. Dallas has been stronger against the run in 2007, ranking fourth in the league versus ground attacks (82.1 yards per game) and surrendering just two rushes of 20 yards or longer. Linebackers Bradie James (69 tackles, 2 sacks), Akin Ayodele (39 tackles), and the safety Williams are among the team's top run-stuffers, with ends Marcus Spears (19 tackles, 1 sack) and Chris Canty (29 tackles, 3 INT) among those controlling things at the point of attack.

WHEN THE COWBOYS HAVE THE BALL

Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo (3043 passing yards, 29 TD, 13 INT), a native of Burlington, WI, will face the somewhat unique task of trying to defeat his boyhood idol Favre. Given the way Romo has tackled his other tough assignments this season, you wouldn't expect the blossoming signal-caller to cower in the face of the challenge. Romo has thrown multiple touchdown passes in all but one game this season, and his 29 TDs rank second in the league behind only Tom Brady. Against the Jets, the Eastern Illinois product found favorite targets Terrell Owens (64 receptions, 13 TD) and tight end Jason Witten (59 receptions, 6 TD) for scoring plays, though he also threw an interception for a fourth consecutive game and was sacked three times. Wideout Patrick Crayton (33 receptions, 5 TD), who sat out last Thursday's contest with an ankle injury, is expected to return against the Packers. In the running game, Marion Barber (715 rushing yards, 29 receptions, 8 TD) will be trying to build on an 18-carry, 103-yard outing against the Jets, a performance that marked his best rushing performance since the 2005 season. Dallas is 11th in the league in rushing offense (122.9 yards per game) as Week 13 commences.

Green Bay's main concern entering Thursday's game is the state of a banged-up defense, one that could be without starters such as cornerback Charles Woodson (toe), safety Nick Collins (knee), and tackle Johnny Jolly (shoulder), as well as sack artist Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila (ankle/knee) and key safety backup Aaron Rouse (knee). Of that group, Woodson (48 tackles, 4 INT) and Collins (29 tackles) appear most likely to play, with Collins hoping to re-join the lineup after missing three games. Statistically, the Packers come into Dallas ranked 13th against the run (100.1 yards per game) and 18th against the pass (215.3 yards per game). The strongest element of Green Bay's defensive game against the Lions was pressure, with end Aaron Kampman (51 tackles, 11 sacks) notching two of the team's four sacks of Jon Kitna. A linebacking corps led by Nick Barnett (91 tackles, 2 INT, 1.5 sacks) in the middle and A.J. Hawk (72 tackles, 1 INT) on the outside has done a good job controlling the run this year, but allowed Detroit's nondescript ground attack to churn out 134 yards last week. The absence of Jolly (21 tackles, 1 sack), who is likely to replaced this week by rookie and first-round draft choice Justin Harrell (2 tackles), could have had an impact on that somewhat lackluster showing.

FANTASY FOCUS

With two of the most prolific offenses in the league going Thursday night, many fantasy owners will be expecting to start their Week 13 with a bang. Both quarterbacks have been among the most reliable signal-callers in the league this year, and should come up with a healthy amount of fantasy points. For Dallas, the must-start targets have been Owens and Witten, with Crayton a possibility as a No. 2 or flex in certain leagues. Green Bay's best fantasy targets have been Driver, who has averaged 98 yards per game over his last four, and Jennings, who has scored in seven of his last nine games. Packers tight end Lee isn't a sure thing as far as fantasy production goes, but is worth considering thanks to three touchdowns in his last three games. In a game that could be high-scoring, you might want to deliberate over whether starting the Dallas or Green Bay defenses is a prudent move. Rookie kickers Nick Folk (Dallas) and Mason Crosby (Green Bay) can be counted on for production, however.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

This figures to be a terrific game between two of the league's best and most exciting teams, and might only be a first act in a 2007 series that could resume in the NFC Championship game. By that time, the circumstances might be different, but as of this moment, the Cowboys have a slight edge. Dallas is a veteran team that has faced more big-game situations as a unit, and also happens to be healthier than Green Bay at this stage. A battered Packer pass defense could have trouble consistently stopping Romo and his fleet of targets, while a young Green Bay o-line could have a few problems against the 3-4 and the attacking Dallas defense. The Packers will make it a game and will hang in until the end, but won't make enough big plays in the fourth quarter to pull out the victory.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Cowboys 27, Packers 20

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