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Experts Expect Devastating Attacks On Internet

POSTED: Tuesday, January 11, 2005

Two-thirds of the technology leaders, scholars and technology industry officials think that there will be at least one devastating attack on the Internet's infrastructure or the nation's power grid in the next 10 years.

The analysts took part in a survey by the Pew Internet and American Life Project.

The 1,286 experts also expect broadband Internet access to become more integrated into daily life.

Some of the other predictions:
  • 59% of these experts agreed with a prediction that more government and business surveillance will occur as computing devices proliferate and become embedded in appliances, cars, phones, and even clothes.
  • 57 percent agreed that virtual classes will become more widespread in formal education and that students might at least occasionally be grouped with others who share their interests and skills, rather than by age.
  • 56 percent say that as telecommuting and home-schooling expand, the boundary between work and leisure will diminish.
  • 50 percent of them believe that anonymous, free, music file-sharing on peer-to-peer networks will still be easy to perform a decade from now.
  • 32 percent agreed that people would use the Internet to support their political biases and filter out information that disagrees with their views.
  • 32 percent agreed with a prediction that online voting would be secure and widespread by 2014. Half of the respondents disagreed or disputed that idea.

    The respondents could not agree on whether the Internet would forment a rise in religious and political extremist groups, whether Internet use would usher in more participation in civic organizations, and whether the widespread adoption of technology in the health system would ameliorate the most knotty problems in the system such as rising costs and medical errors.

    They also said they were surprised that educational institutions have changed so little, despite widespread expectation a decade ago that schools would be quick to embrace change.

    Half of the experts in the survey were online before the development of the World Wide Web. The study was designed to test prediction made between 1990 and 1995. Elon University is still compiling predictions and data on what people think of them on its Web site.

    The full report is available on Pew's Web site.

    Disuss: What's The Future Of The Internet?

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