ANKARA – Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said he plans to strengthen the country’s deterrence capabilities so that no country would dare attack it.
Erdogan announced plans this week to step up Turkey’s production of medium- and long-range missiles, as the war between Israel and Iran escalates.
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Erdogan discussed the Iran-Israel war with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in a telephone call on Friday. He told Merz that the Iranian nuclear issue can only be resolved through negotiations, according to Erdogan’s office.
Despite Turkey’s tense relations with Israel, analysts and officials don’t see an immediate threat of the conflict spreading into NATO-member Turkey. Still, some see the move by Erdogan as a sign that the Israel-Iran war could trigger a new arms race in the region, with countries not directly involved in the fray ramping up their military efforts to preempt future conflicts.
The Israeli army on Friday declined to comment on Turkey’s plans to ramp up missile production, but Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar responded to Erdogan’s criticisms of Israel over its attack on Iran in an X post on Wednesday. He accused Erdogan of having “imperialist ambitions” and of having “set a record in suppressing the freedoms and rights of his citizens, as well as his country’s opposition.”
Ahmet Kasim Han, a professor of international relations at Istanbul’s Beykoz University, said that Turkey was reacting to what he described as an unraveling world order.
“The Turkish government is drifting toward what is the name of the game in the Middle East right now: an escalation of an arms race,” he said, adding that Israel and the U.S. have set a high standard in aerial warfare, creating a technological gap that Turkey and others are eager to close.
Importance of air superiority
Erdogan said following a Cabinet meeting on Monday that “we are making production plans to bring our medium- and long-range missile stockpiles to a level that ensures deterrence, in light of recent developments."
“God willing, in the not-too-distant future, we will reach a defense capacity that is so strong that no one will even dare to act tough toward us," Erdogan said.
In an separate address days later, he highlighted Turkey’s progress in its domestically developed defense industry, that includes drones, fighter jets, armored vehicles and navy vessels, but stressed that continued effort was needed to ensure full deterrence.
“Although Turkey has a very large army — the second largest in NATO — its air power, its air defense, is relatively weaker,” said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, a Turkey analyst at the German Marshall Fund think tank.
The ongoing conflict has reinforced the importance of air superiority, including missiles and missile defense systems, prompting “countries in the region, including Turkey to strengthen its air power,” he said.
Since the start of the conflict, Erdogan has been scrambling to end the hostilities. He has held a flurry of phone calls with leaders, including U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, offering to act as a “facilitator” for the resumption of negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program.
There are deep concerns in Turkey that a prolonged conflict will cause energy disruptions and lead to refugee movement from Iran, with which it shares a 560 kilometer-long (348 mile) border.
Turkey relies heavily on energy imports, including from Iran, and rising oil prices due to the conflict could aggravate inflation and further strain its troubled economy. It has strongly criticized Israel’s actions, saying Iran has the legitimate right to defend itself against Israel's attacks, which came as nuclear negotiations were ongoing.
Turkish influence in Syria
Once close allies, Turkey and Israel have grown deeply estranged, especially after the start of the war in Gaza in 2023, with Erdogan becoming one of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s fiercest critics.
Relations further deteriorated following the fall of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s government as Israel grew increasingly wary of expanding Turkish influence in Syria.
Earlier this year, Turkey and Israel established a “de-escalation mechanism” aimed at preventing conflict between their troops in Syria. The move came after Syria’s Foreign Ministry said that Israeli jets had struck a Syrian air base that Turkey reportedly hoped to use.
Erdogan’s nationalist ally, Devlet Bahceli, suggested that Turkey was a potential target for Israel, accusing the country of strategically “encircling” Turkey with its military actions. He didn't elaborate.
However, analysts say such statements were for “domestic consumption” to garner support amid growing anti-Israel sentiment in Turkey.
“I don’t think that Israel has any interest in attacking Turkey, or Turkey has any interest in a conflict with Israel,” Han said.
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Ibrahim Hazboun contributed from Jerusalem.