HURRICANES

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 13N17W and continues southward to 07N22W. The ITCZ continues from 07N22W to 00N46W. Scattered moderate convection is found south of 04N between 26W and 44W.

Gulf Of Mexico

A surface trough analyzed across the Louisiana nearshore waters is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Otherwise, broad subtropical ridging dominates the remainder of the basin. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas are noted south of 25N and west of 90W. Light to gentle easterly winds and slight seas prevail across the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure centered just east of Florida and lower pressures in the western Gulf will support moderate to locally fresh winds over the majority of the Gulf of Mexico into late next week. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse at night into late next week near the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula. Haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is evident in the SW and west-central Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

A deep layer trough extends from the western Atlantic southwest to Puerto Rico, with a secondary trough analyzed across the Leeward Islands. These troughs provide a focused area of lift and, combined with rich tropical moisture, are leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms east of 70W, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Locally heavy rainfall continues to bring a threat of flooding to Puerto Rico. See local weather advisories for more information. Mariners should also be aware of the potential for strong wind gusts and locally rough seas in the area of showers and thunderstorms.

The rest of the Caribbean is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. Moderate to locally fresh trades and slight to moderate seas are noted in the southeast Caribbean, while mainly moderate easterly winds and slight seas are observed in the northwestern Caribbean and Windward Passage. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E winds in the northwestern Caribbean will continue through Mon night. Similar winds will occur nocturnally in the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate trade winds are expected elsewhere through the forecast period. A surface trough that extends from the western Atlantic into the northeastern Caribbean continues to support numerous thunderstorms east of 73W. This activity is moving east and is producing gusty winds and frequent lightning.

Atlantic Ocean

The western Atlantic is under the influence of a weak subtropical ridge centered between Bermuda and the southeast US coast. A generally dry airmass maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions west of 68W. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 28N50W to Puerto Rico. South of 25N and west of the trough, moderate NE to E winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. Numerous thunderstorms are along and east of the trough, extending east to a line from 30N40W to the Leeward Islands. Some of this activity may be accompanied by strong gusty winds and frequent lightning.

The rest of the central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by a 1022 mb high-pressure system near the Island of Madeira. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas are present south of a line from the westernmost of the Canary Islands to the Windward Islands. The strongest winds are occurring off Western Sahara. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned trough will shift eastward through the weekend as a cold front drops southward over the eastern and central waters. The front will shift east of the area Sun night. High pressure will then settle over the area through Wed night.

Posted 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Nepaul