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Special Features

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will move offshore the SE U.S. Coast today, then move slowly SE and reach from 31N72W to South Florida by Tue, then stall from Bermuda to the Florida Straits Wed. Low pressure is forecast to form along the front in the vicinity of the Bahamas on Tue, then accelerate NE along the boundary and out of the basin toward Bermuda by Wed. As the pressure gradient increases behind this low and strong high pressure building into the SE U.S., already strong NE winds N and W of the front will increase further, with gales developing Tue afternoon offshore NE Florida, then spreading east between the Bahamas and Bermuda Tue night into Wed. Very rough seas in excess of 15 kt are likely in the area of gales. With the frontal boundary remaining nearly stationary late this week, conditions will be slow to improve.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 04N21W. The ITCZ extends from 04N21W to 01N45W. Only isolated convection exists within about 150 nm of both of these features.

Gulf Of America

A cold front extends from Apalachicola Bay to just north of Veracruz, Mexico. Strong to near gale force N winds are N of the front within 150 nm of the Mexican coast as well as with 180 nm of the Texas and Louisiana coasts. Scattered moderate convection is noted ahead of the front from the Bay of Campeche northward to around 27N between 91W and 96W. Seas where the strong winds exist are 8 to 11 ft. S and E of the front, gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, the cold front will move slowly SE and reach from SW Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche tonight, then drift slowly SE of the basin Tue and Tue night. Thunderstorms with locally gusty winds will accompany the front. Strong NE winds and rough seas will continue in the western Gulf behind the front through tonight, then strong NE winds will develop in the NE basin, as low pressure develops in the Atlantic after the front exits the Gulf of America. Conditions will improve some Fri and Fri night as high pressure from the eastern U.S builds southwestward toward the northern Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

A benign trade wind dominant weather pattern prevails through the basin, with moderate to fresh E winds through the central and eastern basin, and gentle NE winds in the west. Moderate seas are present, except for slight in the NW basin.

For the forecast, a trough oriented north of Haiti will meander into mid-week, disrupting the typical pressure gradient through the basin and leading to mainly gentle winds over the western basin, with moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Caribbean. By Wed night, strong high pressure building south toward the region will replace the trough and winds in the south-central Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong.

Atlantic Ocean

See Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning that has been issued for portions of the SW Atlantic starting Tuesday.

A broad subtropical ridge covers the region and support moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the central subtropical waters along with seas to 7 ft. Over the SW N Atlantic waters, rough seas in decaying NE to E swell exist E of the Bahamas. A weak trough along 70W is inducing scattered moderate convection N of the Antilles to 24N between 62W and 77W.

For the forecast west of 55W, hazardous marine conditions are expected this week NW of a line from 31N60W to the SE Bahamas, as very rough seas and gale conditions will impact some areas. Details can be found in the Special Features section above.

Posted 56 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik