HURRICANES
TROPICS WATCH
Gulf
Atlantic
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
East-Central Subtropical Atlantic: An area of low pressure located about 900 miles northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has been producing a small but persistent area of showers and thunderstorms to the east of its center since this morning. However, the low is forecast to move southwestward at 10 to 15 mph into an area of stronger upper-level winds tonight and tomorrow, and additional development is not expected.
No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for this system unless conditions warrant. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on May 15, 2024, and Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the remainder of the off-season. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days, low, 10 percent.
Posted 6 days ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Berg/Brown
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 13N16W and continues southwestward to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 03N35W and to 03N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 03N to 06N between 15W and 25W.
Gulf Of Mexico
Isolated thunderstorms is noted over the Florida Straits just west of a trough that extends from Cuba to Miami, FL. High pressure over the western Atlantic is supporting gentle to moderate SE winds across the Gulf, except west of the Yucatan Peninsula where locally fresh NE winds are noted. 3 to 5 ft combined seas are noted across the basin. Light to moderate smoke from agricultural fires over southern Mexico is creating hazy conditions for much of the southwest Gulf.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in Texas and Mexico will support fresh to strong pulsing winds in the western half of the Gulf Wed night into the weekend. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail in the eastern half of the basin. Winds will pulse to strong speeds nightly near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula due to local effects induced by a thermal trough.
Caribbean Sea
A 1021 mb high pressure north of the area supports moderate to fresh easterly trade winds over much of the Caribbean basin. Fresh to strong winds are pulsing in the offshore waters of southern Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage noted in a recent scatterometer pass. The pass also noted mainly gentle winds over the NW Caribbean Sea. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across the eastern and central basin, with 3 to 5 ft seas in the NW basin. For the forecast, the ridge is expected to slide eastward and weaken some over the next few days, resulting in mainly gentle to moderate trade winds through the week and into the weekend. Northerly swell will support rough seas through the the NE Caribbean passages until Wed.
Atlantic Ocean
1021 mb high pressure is centered between Bermuda and northeast Florida near 30N70W. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N37W to 25N40W A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated this pattern is supporting fresh winds off the north coast of Puerto Rico to Hispaniola and across the Old Bahama Channel north of eastern Cuba. Buoy observations and earlier altimeter satellite data show combined seas of affecting the waters N of 28N and E of 60W. A scatterometer pass showed fresh to strong SW winds north of 29N between 50W and 45W, ahead of a weak cold front east of Bermuda. Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere west of 35W. Farther east, high pressure east of the Azores is supporting a large area of fresh to strong NE winds and 8 to 11 ft over the eastern Atlantic.
For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds will continue over the waters S of 22N and W of 60W through Wed, including in the approaches of the Windward Passage. The high pressure will move eastward while slowly weakening. A surface trough may develop just N of Hispaniola over the next 48 hours and move east toward the waters just north of Puerto Rico by the end of the work week.
Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Mora
