While drivers are seeing some relief at the pump, the U.S. Energy Information Administration says gas prices are likely to remain elevated despite a recently announced peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran.
The deal is expected to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, known as one of the world’s most critical oil shipping routes.
However, energy analysts say the impact of previous supply disruptions could continue affecting fuel prices for months.
According to GasBuddy, the average price of gasoline in Bexar County is currently about $3.14 per gallon, more than 30 cents lower than the Texas state average. The national average remains just under $4 per gallon.
Although prices have eased somewhat in recent weeks, Americans are still paying significantly more for fuel than they did before the conflict began.
The U.S. Senate Joint Economic Committee estimates Americans have spent more than $25 billion in additional gasoline costs since the start of the U.S.-Iran war.
In early May, the national average price for gasoline stood at $4.56 per gallon, roughly 53% higher than pre-conflict levels.
Drivers hoping for a return to the low gas prices seen in previous years may have to wait.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts the national average gasoline price will be about $2.98 per gallon throughout 2026 and remain above $3.40 per gallon through 2027.
Energy analyst Rob McNally of Rapidan Energy Group says that even if tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz resumes in the coming weeks, the oil market may continue dealing with supply shortages created during the disruption.
“Even if Hormuz reopens and we see those tankers flow in the coming weeks, we’ll probably see lower gasoline prices in the upcoming weeks,” McNally said. “There’s a risk that we’ll still see upward pressure on prices later this summer because of the size of the hole that has been put into the global oil market.”
McNally warned that if negotiations fail and shipping disruptions persist through the summer, crude oil prices could surge into the mid-to-high $100-per-barrel range. Such increases could push gasoline prices back toward $5 per gallon nationwide.
The Energy Information Administration also cautions that a full return to pre-conflict market conditions is not expected until at least early 2027, and only if the Strait of Hormuz remains open and global oil supplies stabilize.