The 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season is just around the corner, running June 1st through Nov. 30, and NOAA is forecasting a below-normal season this year.
The agency says there is a 55% chance of a below-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of an above average season.
NOAA Predicts 8 to 14 named storms in the Atlantic basin this season. Of those, 3 to 6 could become hurricanes, and 1 to 3 could reach major hurricane strength.
In a typical season, the Atlantic sees 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
The main reason for the quieter outlook is the expected development of El Niño during hurricane season. El Niño often increases wind shear over the Atlantic, which can disrupt storm development.
Still, forecasters say slightly warmer-than-normal ocean water and weaker trade winds could support some tropical activity, which is why the season is not expected to be completely inactive.
NOAA stresses that a seasonal outlook does not say where or when storms will make landfall. Even in a below-average season, one storm can still cause major damage.
That is why forecasters are encouraging families and businesses to review hurricane plans, check emergency supplies and stay informed throughout the season.
NOAA says new forecasting tools, including improved weather models, drones and next generation satellite data, are helping meteorologists track storms more accurately and issue warnings earlier.
Even with a lower storm forecast, experts say early preparation remains the best way to stay safe all season long.
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- Find the latest forecasts, radar and alerts on the KSAT Weather Authority page