Very Heavy Rainfall And Dangerous Flash Flooding Expected From Potential Tropical Cyclone One.

Discussion

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 98.0 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is anticipated over the next couple of days. The disturbance should move offshore the Texas coast tonight or early Wednesday, move roughly parallel to the upper Texas coast later on Wednesday and move back inland in extreme eastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana late Wednesday or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is forecast to gradually strengthen and could become a tropical storm early on Wednesday. Weakening is anticipated on Thursday after the system moves back on land. * Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days, medium, 60 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

Watches and Warnings

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the northwestern Gulf Coast from Sargent, Texas to Morgan City, Louisiana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for, * Sargent to Morgan City

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Land Hazards

Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated higher totals around 12 inches through Thursday from the Mid to Upper Texas Coast through much of Louisiana, central and southern portions of Mississippi and Alabama, and the far western portion of the Florida Panhandle. This could generate dangerous to life-threatening flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this potential tropical cyclone, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning early Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide,

Port Bolivar, TX to Morgan City, LA, 2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

SURF: Swells generated by the Potential Tropical Cyclone are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the northwestern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ripCurrents

TORNADO: A tornado or two is possible through tonight from the Upper Texas coast across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.