Renzo Downey is the lead writer of our premier politics newsletter, The Blast, which delivers exclusive reporting, nonpartisan analysis and the first word on political moves across the state. Subscribe today.
This article was adapted from our premium politics newsletter, The Blast, which delivers exclusive reporting, nonpartisan analysis and the first word on political moves across the state. Subscribe today.
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The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, the party’s national arm that targets legislative races, announced Wednesday that it plans to put resources into Texas next year for the first time since 2020.
The national interest reflects Democratic optimism that the 2026 cycle will provide a favorable political climate for the party, amid President Donald Trump’s flagging approval ratings and voter dismay over the state of the economy.
In Texas, the effort to flip GOP-controlled state House districts will be led by the House Democratic Campaign Committee. The group announced Wednesday that state Rep. Christina Morales of Houston will serve as its chair for the 2026 cycle, replacing state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, an Austin Democrat who is running for governor.
Morales told The Texas Tribune that the HDCC initially plans to target four seats Democrats tried and failed to flip in 2024, and one of the two seats Democrats lost:
- House District 34, which Rep. Denise Villalobos, R-Corpus Christi, flipped by an 11-percentage point margin
- House District 37, which Rep. Janie Lopez, R-San Benito, won by 10 points
- House District 112, which Rep. Angie Chen Button, R-Garland, won by 8 points
- House District 118, an open seat that Rep. John Lujan, R-San Antonio, won by 3 points
- House District 121, which Rep. Marc LaHood, R-San Antonio, won by 5 points
For the first time in several cycles, Democrats are fielding candidates in every federal and state legislative race in Texas. Among the targeted seats, Morales singled out three Democratic candidates who are running unopposed in their primaries — Zach Hebert in HD 112, Kristian Carranza in HD 118 and Zach Dunn in HD 121 — as contenders who “can relate to the community there and have the right messaging.”
“Republicans have been so good about putting us on the defense, but I want us to focus on being on the offense this time around,” Morales said.
The DLCC has yet to release its own list of Texas House seats that it plans to target.
Democrats have only lost ground in the Texas House since 2018, when the party picked up 12 seats in the lower chamber. In 2020, Democrats failed to net any districts despite a well-financed effort aimed at flipping control of the chamber. With both chambers remaining under GOP control, Republicans redrew district lines in 2021 that helped them pick up three Democratic seats in 2022 and two more in 2024.
But Democrats hope 2026 will be more like 2018, another midterm year with Donald Trump in the White House and his popularity faltering. That bore out in the recent November election, when Democrats performed better than expected across the country and Hispanic voters boomeranged back to Democrats.
Of the five seats on Morales’ initial target list, three — House Districts 34, 37 and 118 — would have been carried by 2018 Senate nominee Beto O’Rourke had the district lines been in place that year. The two others — Districts 112 and 121 — could have been narrowly carried by GOP Sen. Ted Cruz.
Encouraged by Democrats’ strong showing in elections around the country this year, the DLCC is investing an initial $50 million nationwide to flip 42 state legislative chambers. According to the group’s strategy memo unveiled Wednesday, Democrats overperformed by an average of nearly 4.5 points in races it targeted last month.
“The favorable political environment taking shape for Democrats is on a scale that only comes once in a generation, and the DLCC is poised to meet this moment through the largest target map and political budget ever,” DLCC president Heather Williams said in a press release. “We aren’t wasting a moment to execute on our winning strategy by electing more state Democrats in Texas.”
Texas’ slice of the $50 million is part of national Democrats’ renewed promise to invest in Texas. Democrats here have heard that refrain before but felt their hopes dashed. But this cycle’s promise comes with the recognition that state House Democrats who fled the state during this summer’s congressional redistricting stuck their necks out for the sake of U.S. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and national Democrats, risking fines — and their offices — for a spectacle that galvanized Democrats elsewhere to counter Republican gerrymandering.
“I think our quorum break really shone a light on our state, and that we do have some fighting Democrats here,” Morales said. “This is the moment, and we’re going to build an operation that matches the moment, and we’re going to win.”
Republicans currently hold an 88-62 advantage in the 150-seat state House, meaning Democrats would need to flip 14 seats to win control — a tall order even under the most favorable conditions. If they are able to significantly narrow the GOP’s margin, however, they could exert more influence in the chamber, after Republicans largely ran roughshod over the minority party in recent legislative sessions.