Tropics Watch

Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system is centered between the Madeira Islands and the Azores. This system has become less organized during the past 24 hours, and environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development as the system moves southwestward during the next day or two. Although subtropical development is now unlikely, this system will continue to produce strong winds and locally heavy rains in the Madeira Islands and the Azores through Wednesday. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.

This will be the last Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued on this system. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on June 1, 2021, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the off-season. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, low, 10 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW.

Posted 5 months ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Beven

Tropics Watch Satellite

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Guinea near 09N13W to 03N21W to 02N31W to 01N35W. The ITCZ is south of the equator between 38W and 46W. Scattered moderate convection is south of 06N between 05W and 13W. Isolated showers are noted elsewhere near the monsoon trough axis.

Gulf Of Mexico

A cold front extends across the eastern Gulf of Mexico from Saint Petersburg Florida to 26N91W. A dissipating stationary front trails westward from 26N91W to 26N93W to 25N95W. A small area of moderate showers is evident along the frontal boundary between 88W and 91W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from Lake Okeechobee in southern Florida to 24N83W. Scatterometer data shows gentle to moderate NE to E winds across the NW Gulf, gentle NW winds in the NE Gulf, and N to NE winds in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Seas are estimated to be 2 to 4 ft across the basin. SAB analysis of satellite imagery indicates light to medium smoke west of 90W in the Gulf of Mexico from agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Central America.

The cold front across the eastern Gulf will push southward east of 90W through tonight. Moderate to fresh return flow is expected in the western and central Gulf this weekend. Hazy sky conditions due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico are likely across the SW Gulf for several more days.

Caribbean Sea

Scattered showed are noted south of 11.5N in the SW Caribbean west 76W. Isolated trade wind shower activity prevails across the rest of the basin. Scatterometer data shows a small area of fresh NE to E winds near the coast of Colombia, moderate trade winds in the eastern Caribbean Sea, and gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 6 across most of the region, except 2-3 ft in the NW Caribbean.

A ridge north of the area will support moderate trade winds over most of the basin through Sat. Stronger trades are likely across the central Caribbean Sun and Mon as high pressure builds to the north. Hazy sky conditions from agricultural fires in Central America are possible across the NW Caribbean for several days.

Atlantic Ocean

A broad subtropical ridge continues as the dominant feature across the Atlantic Ocean, anchored by high pressure near 33N22W and a 1022 mb high near 28N48W. A weak surface trough is analyzed in the western Atlantic from 28N56W to 25N64W to 23N67W. A cold front associated with a surface low near 32N78W extends into the waters east of northern Florida from 31N79W to Cape Canaveral Florida. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 29N78W to Lake Okeechobee in southern Florida. Scattered moderate showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms are within 180 nm east of the front from 27N to 30N. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh trade winds from 07N to 17N in the tropical N Atlantic between 45W and 62W, moderate to fresh southerly winds north of 26N ahead of the cold front to 73W, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 6 to 7 ft across the tropical N Atlantic between 40W and 60W, 4 to 6 ft elsewhere south of 20N, and 2-3 ft north of 20N.

The cold front east of northern Florida will reach from 31N74W to Miami Florida later today. The northern part of the front will shift eastward across the northern waters through Sat night. A cold front will move south of 30N into the waters east of Florida Tue night.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Mundell

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature