Hurricanes

Tropical Waves

A tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa extends from 03N-20N with axis near 17W, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis, south of 12N.

A tropical wave extends from 02N-18N with axis near 41W, moving westward at 15 knots. Isolated moderate convection is from 04N- 11N between 37W-45W.

A tropical wave extends from 04N-17N with axis near 55W, moving westward at 15 knots. No convection is associated with this wave.

A tropical wave is moving across the southwest Caribbean south of 20N, with axis near 81W, moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate to strong convection is south of 16N west of 80W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The Monsoon Trough extends from 16W to 24W. The ITCZ extends from 24W to 40W. The ITCZ resumes west of a tropical wave near 43W to 53W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 06N-09N between 46W-53W.

Gulf of Mexico

Stable conditions prevail across the Gulf supported by surface and middle level ridging. A weak pressure gradient across the region sustain moderate return flow in the western half of the basin and lighter winds elsewhere. Isolated showers are observed over the northern Gulf offshore waters. This shower activity is being supported by an upper level trough over the north-central basin and moisture inflow from north Mexico.

Surface ridging will prevail over the Gulf waters through the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds are expected across most of the basin through wed, except over the northeast Gulf, where light winds will prevail.

Caribbean Sea

A tropical wave along 81W and the eastern extent of the east Pacific Monsoon Trough is producing scattered moderate to strong convection over the southwest Caribbean and Central America south of Belize. Similar convection is inland over north Colombia. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.

Fresh to strong trades will prevail across the south central Caribbean through the middle of next week. Winds may pulse to near gale force along the coast of Colombia tonight. A tropical wave is likely to approach the Lesser Antilles by the middle of next week enhancing winds and seas.

Atlantic Ocean

Radar imagery shows scattered moderate convection off the coast of Georgia. A 1020 mb high is centered over the west Atlantic near 78W. A 1030 mb high is centered over the east Atlantic near 33W, producing fair weather.

Over the west Atlantic, light to gentle winds will prevail across most of the waters through early next week as high pressure extends across the area from the central Atlantic. A surface trough passing through the area may bring some moderate to fresh westerly winds north of 28N early next week.

Posted 1 hour, 3 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Formosa