For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwest Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week. Some gradual development is possible thereafter while the system drifts generally eastward near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, low, 20 percent.

Posted 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Reinhart

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W, south of 14N and moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed S of 08N and between 25W and 31W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 54W, south of 12N and moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is found near this feature at this time.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough is mainly confined to the African continent, reaching the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 09N14W and extending to 08N17W. The ITCZ stretches from 08N17W to 05N27W. A surface trough is analyzed from 05N33W to 01S35W. The ITCZ continues from 01N36W to 02S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present S of 09N and between 13W to 25W. Similar convection is found S of 05N and between 31W and 36W.

Gulf Of Mexico

A weak stationary front is draped across the northern Gulf of Mexico, extending from the Big Bend region of Florida to the Louisiana/Texas border. No significant convection is associated with this boundary. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen in the Bay of Campeche associated with storm activity that developed earlier today over coastal Mexico. The rest of the basin is dominated by a weak 1015 mb high pressure over the eastern Gulf that maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail across the Gulf, except for moderate winds found in the offshore waters of northern Yucatan and the western Gulf coast. Seas of 1-3 ft are prevalent across the Gulf, except for 3-4 ft offshore southern Texas.

For the forecast, weak high pressure continues across the basin, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevailing over the western Gulf and light to gentle winds across the eastern Gulf through the weekend. Fresh southerly return flow will develop Sun night across the NW waters and continue through early next week. Low pressure may develop over the SW Gulf toward the end of the week.

Caribbean Sea

Convergent trade winds continue to generate scattered showers over the eastern Caribbean, while similar activity is also observed in the NW Caribbean, especially off NE Honduras. Dry air dominates the rest of the basin, supporting fairly tranquil weather conditions. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas in the area are 5-8 ft, with the highest seas occurring offshore Colombia. Gentle to locally fresh trades are found elsewhere in the basin, along with seas of 2-5 ft.

In the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area will support fresh to strong winds, and seas to 8 ft, off the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela through early next week. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across much of the remainder of the Caribbean through early next week.

Atlantic Ocean

Divergence aloft due to a stationary front over the coast of the SE United States and a surface trough off NE Florida result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Bahamas and the waters off NE Florida. The rest of the western tropical Atlantic is dominated by a subtropical ridge between Bermuda and the Azores. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures in the Caribbean support fresh to locally strong E-SE winds off northern Hispaniola and SE Bahamas, mainly south of 23N. Seas of 3-6 ft are found W of 55W.

Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N26W to 24N39W. Satellite-derived wind data depict fresh NE-E winds behind the frontal boundary. Northerly swell is producing seas of 6-8 ft behind the front. Dry air dominates the rest of the basin, suppressing the formation of showers and thunderstorms. Moderate to occasionally fresh trades are also noted S of 20N and between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, along with seas of 3-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge will change little over the western Atlantic through the next few days. A weak trough is expected to form near the NW and central Bahamas by mid-week, then possibly develop into weak low pressure while it lifts northeastward Thu and Thu night. Winds will pulse moderate to fresh north of Hispaniola and the southern Bahamas through early next week. Gentle to moderate winds will continue over the remainder of the region through early next week.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado