HURRICANES


TROPICS WATCH


Gulf
Atlantic
Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2022. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

Posted 1 month, 4 weeks ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Beven

Tropics Watch Satellite

Special Features

Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning:

A strong cold front already has moved through the entire Gulf of Mexico. Near-gale to gale-force winds are behind the front, in the offshore waters of Tampico and Veracruz, with sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 13 feet. The peak sea heights are expected to increase to 15 feet tonight. It is expected for the marine conditions to improve gradually on Saturday.

Please, read the latest Offshore Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT4.shtml, for more details.

Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning:

The strong cold front that already moved through the Gulf of Mexico, is moving through the SW N Atlantic Ocean now. The cold front stretches from 31N76W to the Bahamas and to central Cuba near 23N79W. Scatterometer is showing wind speeds are now gale- force, N of 27N behind the front. Expect the sea heights to range from 16 feet to 20 feet, from tonight through Saturday. The wind speeds will diminish to less than gale-force by Saturday night. The wind speeds will become gentle to moderate by Sunday. The comparatively higher sea heights will persist to the E of the Bahamas through early next week. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 24N northward from 60W westward.

Please, read the latest Offshore Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml, for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of Sierra Leone and Liberia, to 04N26W. The ITCZ is not distinguishable at the moment. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 75 nm to the north of the monsoon trough, and within 150 nm to the south of the monsoon trough, between 12W and 18W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

Gulf Of Mexico

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a gale-force wind warning.

The strong cold front of the last 24 hours has moved through the entire Gulf of Mexico. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the whole area. A surface ridge passes through the Deep South of Texas, to the coastal plains of Mexico, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. The broken to overcast skies with the front gradually are becoming clearing skies more and more with time. Strong to near-gale force northerly winds follow the front, except for offshore waters of Tampico and Veracruz that are experiencing gale conditions with seas to 13 feet.

The strong cold front has exited the basin. Gale force winds continue along the coasts of Tampico and Veracruz, through Sat morning. The central and eastern Gulf of Mexico can expect frequent gusts to gale force through Sat morning with rough seas. Seas are forecast to build to 12-15 ft with the strongest winds. Marine conditions will improve by Sun. Then, expect increasing southerly return flow in the western Gulf, from Sun night into Mon, ahead of a low pressure system that is forecast to move across the NW Gulf on Tue.

Caribbean Sea

A cold front passes through central Cuba, beyond the SE part of the Yucatan Peninsula, to the eastern sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and rainshowers are along and to the north of the cold front.

Patches of shallow moisture are supporting passing rainshowers, that are evident throughout the area.

Mostly fresh-to-some strong winds are within 240 nm of the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia between 66W and 76W. Moderate winds or slower are elsewhere. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet.

Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of Colombia tonight with gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean tonight and reach eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Sat morning, and from Haiti to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua by Sun morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas of 8-10 ft will follow the front with the highest seas in the Yucatan Channel. Fresh to locally strong winds can be expected in the Windward Passage, from Sun through early Tue, behind the front.

Atlantic Ocean

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a gale-force wind warning and accompanying sea heights, that are related to a cold front.

The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from 06N to 16N between 25W and 35W. The sea heights are reaching 8 feet within 250 nm of the coast of Africa from 12N to 15N. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet, elsewhere, from 60W eastward. Strong winds are within 380 nm of the coast of Africa from 13N to 18N. Fresh winds are elsewhere from 11N to 20N within 500 nm of the coast of Africa. Fresh winds are from 05N northward between 24W and 40W. Mostly fresh-to-some strong winds are from 11N southward between 40W and 50W.

A surface trough curves along 31N52W 28N56W, to a 1016 mb low pressure center that is near 25N57W. The surface trough continues from the 1016 mb low pressure center to 22N57W and to 19N60W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 19N northward between 47W and 61W. Isolated moderate also is from 10N to 19N between 50W and 60W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 15N to 28N between 40W and 50W. A surface trough is along 46W/47W from 13N to 24N. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong are from 10N to 28N between 35W and 50W. Tween 42W and 44W. Isolated moderate is in the remainder of the area that is from 13N to 30N between 35W and 48W.

A cold front stretches from 31N76W to the Bahamas and to central Cuba near 23N79W. Strong winds are following the front. Gale force winds will develop N of 27N behind the front with seas of 16-20 ft tonight through Sat. Winds will diminish below gale force by Sat night, with winds becoming gentle to moderate by Sun. Large seas will persist E of the Bahamas through early next week.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Mt/Ar

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature