HURRICANES
VIDEO FORECAST
TROPICS WATCH
Atlantic
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2026. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
Posted 5 months ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Bucci
Tropical Waves
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 32W, south of 12N, moving westward at about 10 kt. The wave is in a very dry environment, suppressing shower and thunderstorm activity.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W, south of 12N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the wave axis.
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W, then curves southwestward to 06N21W. The ITCZ extends from 06N21W to 02N30W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is present south of 07N and E of 27W.
Gulf Of America
Continental high pressure of 1017 mb centered S of Louisiana dominates the basin, with a dissipating cold front entering the far NW Gulf. Winds are mainly light to gentle and anticyclonic, but moderate S winds are present in the NW Gulf. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the NE basin and 2 to 4 ft in the SW. Dry air is in place and no convection is occurring.
For the forecast, the weak cold front will dissipate over the NE Gulf today. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate into early next week. As low pressure deepens over Texas, the pressure gradient will tighten and SE winds will increase to moderate to fresh over the western Gulf this weekend, then continue through early next week.
Caribbean Sea
A cold front has stalled in the NW Caribbean from western Cuba to near Cozumel, and associated convection has diminished. The only remaining convection in the basin is within 90 nm of the coast of Panama, where the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough is aiding in thunderstorm development. The pressure gradient between high pressure centered E of Bermuda and low pressure over northern Colombia is leading to strong E winds in the central and southern Caribbean, highest offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Rough seas are also present where the strong winds are ongoing. For the remainder of the basin, aside from the NW, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail. In the NW basin, mainly gentle E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are present.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the forecast waters, pulsing to strong in the Gulf of Honduras at night Sat through Tue. Large E swell resulting in rough seas will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters into Mon, then begin to subside.
Atlantic Ocean
A cold front has stalled from just W of Bermuda to the Florida Straits. Numerous moderate convection is N of 26N, E of the front to 65W. Winds in this zone of convection are fresh to strong out of the SW, and seas are rough. Elsewhere N of 20N, mainly moderate E winds and moderate seas dominate. To the S of 20N, fresh trades and rough seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will gradually dissipate into the weekend. Some fresh to strong SW winds E of the boundary N of 28N will lift N of the region later today, allowing rough seas to diminish. Thereafter, mainly tranquil marine conditions with moderate easterly winds will prevail through early next week.
Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik
