Tropics Watch

Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system is centered between the Madeira Islands and the Azores. This system has become less organized during the past 24 hours, and environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development as the system moves southwestward during the next day or two. Although subtropical development is now unlikely, this system will continue to produce strong winds and locally heavy rains in the Madeira Islands and the Azores through Wednesday. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.

This will be the last Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued on this system. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on June 1, 2021, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the off-season. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, low, 10 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW.

Posted 3 months ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Beven

Tropics Watch Satellite

Special Features

Atlantic Gale Warning: Low pressure currently over the SE Gulf of Mexico will deepen and move rapidly to the east across Florida into the western Atlantic by tonight. Strong northerly winds following the front will increase to gale force by Sun night over Atlantic waters southwest of Bermuda, from 27N-31N between 65W- 70W, with 8 to 12 ft seas. For more information, please refer the Atlantic High Seas forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of W Africa near 12N16W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 00N24W to the coast of Brazil near 02N45W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 01N-09N between 07W-20W.

Gulf Of Mexico

A middle to upper level trough continue to support a cold front that extends from Fort Myers, Florida to a 1013 mb low near 25N85W to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers are ahead of the front, including the straits of Florida and the Yucatan channel. Strong high pressure builing behind the front is currently supporting NE fresh winds over the eastern half of the gulf and fresh to strong N winds west of 90W, with the strongest winds occurring between Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico. Seas behind the front range between 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, the low will shift E-SE across the Gulf through this evening, dragging the front across the Gulf. High pressure building behind the front will support strong east winds across the eastern Gulf tonight through early Wed.

Caribbean Sea

A stationary front extends across the northwest Caribbean from eastern Cuba to near Banco Chinchorro off the Mexican coast. Judging from the surface observations from Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, the front is dissipating. A persistent surface trough reaches from off the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia to near Puerto Rico. San Juan radar is showing a few associated showers moving to the W-NW, south of the Mona Passage. Although it is outside of radar coverage, satellite imagery is showing an area of likely heavier showers along the trough south of Hispaniola. Curacao radar is showing a few showers over northwest Venezuela and adjacent coastal waters, near the southern end of the trough. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas persist across the eastern and central Caribbean, with locally stronger winds and seas to 7 ft farther south close the South American coast. Gentle breezes 2 to 4 ft seas are noted over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong winds will prevail in the southern Caribbean through Sun. Winds will pulse to gale force off the coast of Colombia Mon night and Tue night. A cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean late tonight through Sun. The front will stall from Hispaniola to Honduras by Tue. Strong NE winds and building seas will prevail behind the front over the western Caribbean.

Of note, A week-long period of intermittent heavy rains is expected over Ecuador, SW Colombia and northern Peru in association with a robust wet pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation, arriving to the area this weekend. Rainfall totals of 200-300 mm (8-12 in) are expected in coastal Ecuador and SW Colombia, and 100-200 mm (4-8 in) of rainfall are expected over northern Peru and the Eje Cafetero region of Colombia. Please refer to the forecasts of your local meteorological offices for more details.

Atlantic Ocean

Considerable cloudiness and likely embedded showers are observed along a stationary front that reaches from 32N54W to eastern Cuba. Farther west, cloud covers extends along and north of a cold front reaching from east of Bermuda near 32N61W to 29N75W then is stationary to 28N80W. Fresh NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted north of the front, west of 75W. Mostly gentle to moderate breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere west of 65W. Farther east, ridge extends southwestward from 1034 mb high pressure south of the Azores to just north of the Leeward Islands. This pattern is supporting a large area of fresh trade winds east of 65W, with fresh to strong NE winds east of 25W. Seas are 7 to 12 ft with a component of longer period NW swell.

For the forecast for the area west of 65W, the stationary front from 32N54W to eastern Cuba will weaken today. Winds north of the front will shift easterly today, and increase north of 27N late. A low pressure system will move from central Florida to Bermuda tonight through early Mon, accompanied by strong to near-gale force winds. Winds will reach gale force west of the low Sun night. The low will drag a cold front across the region through early next week. High pressure will build north of 27N by Mon, supporting strong NE winds south of 27N through Wed.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature