HURRICANES


TROPICS WATCH


Gulf
Atlantic

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgrade Hurricane Ian, located offshore of the northeast Florida coast.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave moving off the west coast of Africa is producing a broad area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development and a tropical depression could form early next week as the system moves westward to west-northwestward into the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, medium, 40 percent.

Posted 3 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Bucci

Special Features

Hurricane Ian is centered near 29.3N 79.9W at 29/2100 UTC or 210 nm S of Charleston South Carolina moving NNE at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Tropical storm force winds extend 360 nm from the center. Peak seas over Atlantic offshore waters north of the northern Bahamas are 25 ft. Numerous moderate convection is N of 30N between 76W and 82W. A outer rainband covers the offshore waters between 72W and 79W, including the central Bahamas to central Cuba. On the forecast track, Ian will approach the coast of South Carolina on Friday. The center will move farther inland across the Carolinas Friday night and Saturday. Ian could slightly strengthen before landfall tomorrow, and is forecast to rapidly weaken over the southeastern United States late Friday into Saturday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Eleven is centered near 19.1N 38.1W at 29/2100 UTC or 830 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas are near 9 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the NE quadrant from 20N to 23N between 34W and 38W. A general northwestward motion is expected until the remnant low dissipates within the next day or so. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details.

Tropical Waves

A tropical wave extends from 08N to 20N with axis near 32W, moving W at 10-15 kt. There is no significant convection associated with this wave.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends from the coast W Africa near 16N16W to 15N20W to 08N28W to 08N34W. The ITCZ extends from 10N43W to 09N50W to 12N56W. Aside from the convection mentioned above, scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 02N-15N between 13W-22W.

Gulf Of Mexico

Even though Hurricane Ian is centered over the NE Florida offshore waters, fresh to strong northerly winds from its outer wind circulation continue to affect the entire basin, being the strongest winds in the NE gulf and offshore waters of Veracruz, Mexico. These winds are also being enhanced by a surface ridge building across the western basin in the wake of the hurricane. Seas range between 5 to 8 ft with the highest seas S of 28N.

For the forecast, winds and seas are forecast to gradually diminish over the Gulf region over the next couple of days. Looking ahead, a cold front may enter the NE Gulf late Sat or Sun then stall and dissipate.

Caribbean Sea

Upper-level diffluent flow to the east of a middle to upper level low located between the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico continue to support a broad area of showers and tstms across the Lesser Antilles and the E Caribbean. The other areas with similar convection is Jamaica adjacent waters and the lee of central and southern Cuba due to the outer rainbands of Hurricane Ian centered over the NE Florida offshore waters. In terms of winds and seas, light to gentle winds dominate the region, except for the NW Caribbean offshore waters where moderate to fresh northerly winds with seas to 7 ft in northerly swell prevail in the wake of Hurricane Ian.

For the forecast, large N well produced earlier this week from Ian will continue to spread through the Yucatan Channel through tonight. A surface trough is forecast to persist over the NW Caribbean through at least Sun. Moderate to fresh N winds are expected W of the trough through Fri night. Elsewhere gentle to locally moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin.

Atlantic Ocean

For details on Tropical Storm Ian, centered just offshore Cape Canaveral, FL, please read the Special Features section above. Winds of 20 kt or greater associated with the circulation of Ian currently extend over the waters to the west of 73W and north of 25N. Seas of 8 ft or greater associated with Ian extend over the waters west of 72W and north of 26N. Convection associated with Ian is limited to areas mainly west of 73W.

An upper-level low near 22N65W extends a sharp upper-level trough SW to Puerto Rico to the N coast of Colombia. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection prevails from 09N-18N between 55W-67W. Associated scattered moderate convection is also seen from 18N-25N between 60W-70W. Farther east, an upper-level low centered near 31N42W is inducing scattered moderate convection mainly north of 30N between 33W-42W. Aside from areas near Ian and T.D. Eleven, gentle to moderate trades prevail across the basin with 4-7 ft seas. One exception is off the coasts of Morocco and Western Sahara, where fresh to strong N to NE winds and 6-8 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Ian is forecast to strengthen to a 65 kt hurricane near 30N80W this evening, move N of the area to near 32N80W Fri morning, then move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 34N 80.3W Fri evening. Winds will diminish to below 25 kt over the forecast waters by Sat morning, and seas will subside to below 8 ft by late Sat afternoon.

Posted 23 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos