HURRICANES


TROPICS WATCH


Gulf
Atlantic

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for subtropical development over the northwest Atlantic.

Northwestern Atlantic: A non-tropical low pressure system centered over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean about 300 miles north of Bermuda is producing storm-force winds. Although the cyclone is producing some thunderstorm activity near the center, it is embedded in a cold air mass with nearby frontal boundaries. The low is expected to move northeastward today and northward tonight, bringing the system over much colder waters and across Atlantic Canada by early Tuesday. Therefore, it is unlikely that the low will transition to a subtropical or tropical cyclone. Nevertheless, the system is expected to remain a strong non-tropical low during the next day or so, and additional information, including storm-force wind warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for this system. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on May 15, 2023, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the off-season. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, low, near 0 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Posted 1 week, 3 days ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Cangialosi

Special Features

CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING:

A tight surface pressure gradient, that exists between the Bermuda-area high pressure center, and the comparatively lower surface pressures that are in Colombia, will cause easterly near- gale to gale-force winds, and sea heights to range from 9 feet to 12 feet, off the coast of Colombia, for the next three days or so.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore Waters Forecasts at the website https://www.nch.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, for more information.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 06N11W, to 02N15W and 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W, to 01N30W, crossing the Equator along 32W, to 01S35W, crossing the Equator along 39W, to 01N40W, and to 01N47W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 04N southward from 40W westward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 08N southward from 36W eastward.

Gulf Of Mexico

A cold front passes through the eastern coast of Florida near 26N80W, to 24N85W in the SE Gulf of Mexico, through the Yucatan Channel, to Belize and the northern parts of Guatemala. Strong northerly winds, and sea heights that range from 8 feet to 9 feet, are in the south central and the SW corner of the area. Fresh to strong winds are elsewhere from 90W westward. Fresh winds are from 90W eastward. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet from the NE corner toward the SW corner. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 90 nm on either side of the cold front.

A cold front extending from South Florida to the NE Yucatan Peninsula will exit the basin early this afternoon. Winds and seas associated with the passage of this front will gradually improve by Fri. Fresh to locally strong southerly return flow will set-up this weekend in the NW Gulf in response to the next cold front that will be approaching the NW Gulf. This front is expected to move into the far northern Gulf Sun and Sun night, and stall along the northern Gulf through Mon night. Fresh to strong east winds will surge from the SW Atlantic through the Straits of Florida and into the far SE Gulf Sat and Sat night and diminish Sun.

Caribbean Sea

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information about a Gale-force Wind Warning that is near the coast of Colombia, for the next 24 hours or so.

A cold front passes through 24N85W in the SE Gulf of Mexico, through the Yucatan Channel, to Belize and the northern parts of Guatemala. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 90 nm on either side of the cold front.

A surface ridge extends southwestward, from a 1027 mb 33N59W high pressure center, in order to maintain an easterly trade- wind regime for the entire basin. Expect moderate to fresh wind speeds in the E and NW Caribbean Sea. Expect strong to near gale- force winds, and sea heights to be ranging from 8 feet to 12 feet, in parts of the SW and south central Caribbean Sea. The sea heights have been ranging from 5 feet to 7 feet in the eastern one-third of the area. The sea heights have been ranging from 3 feet to 5 feet elsewhere in the NW part of the area.

Strong trade winds will continue in the south central Caribbean Sea, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea through the forecast period. Minimal gale- force winds will pulse at night near the coast of Colombia during the majority of the forecast period. A cold front entering the the Yucatan Channel will move across the NW Caribbean through early Fri, then stall and dissipate Sat night. Strong NE to E winds are expected to affect the Windward Passage and Lee of Cuba Fri night through Sun night. Similar winds will resume in the Windward Passage Mon night.

Atlantic Ocean

A western Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 31N76W, to the eastern coast of Florida near 26N80W, and into the SE Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights have been ranging from 3 feet to 6 feet, and the wind speeds have been ranging from gentle to moderate, between 70W and 80W. The sea heights have been 7 feet and higher, and the wind speeds have been strong and faster, from 31N northward between 70W and 80W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 135 nm on either side of the front, and elsewhere from 70W westward in the Atlantic Ocean.

A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 24N36W. A surface trough curves away from the low pressure center, to 26N33W 24N32W 20N35W 19N42W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 21N to 27N between 40W and 45W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 20N northward from 50W eastward. A dissipating cold front is along 31N46W 22N50W 20N56W 22N64W. Isolated moderate is from 19N to 24N between 47W and 67W, and elsewhere from 18N northward between 50W and 70W. The sea heights have been ranging from 7 feet to 11 feet, to the north of the line that runs from 12N45W, to the Cabo Verde Islands, to the northern coast of the Western Sahara, from 45W eastward. The sea heights have been ranging from 8 feet to 11 feet from 25N northward between the dissipating cold front and 60W. The sea heights have been ranging from 4 feet to 7 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean that is from 70W eastward. Strong to near gale-force winds are from 460 nm to 960 nm away from the 1012 mb low pressure center in the northern semicircle, including from 24N northward from 20W eastward. Gentle wind speeds or slower are in the area that is from 25N southward from 47W eastward. Gentle to moderate wind speeds are from 25N southward between 47W and 60W, and elsewhere between 60W and 70W.

A cold front extending from 31N76W to South Florida will reach from 31N71W to western Cuba tonight, and from 31N66W to eastern Cuba by Fri night then stall and the southern part of the front will begin to move northward. By Sun morning, a weakening frontal boundary will extent from 31N55W to the NW Bahamas. A tight pressure gradient across the area will support fresh to strong NE to E winds and building seas across the Great Bahama Bank, the Straits of Florida and the Windward passage late Fri night through Sun night. Southerly flow will increase E of NE Florida by Sun night ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the western Atlantic on Mon.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Mt/Gr