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Special Features

Gale Warning East of 35W: The pressure gradient between a 1030 mb high pressure system centered southwest of the Azores and lower pressures in northwest Africa supports strong to gale- force northerly winds in the marine zone of Agadir. Gale-force winds are expected to occur through 06/1200 UTC, with severe gusts. These winds will create rough seas of 10 ft and higher. Similar conditions will continue into the weekend. For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int.

Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is along 22W, south of 13N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 05N to 08N between 18W and 25W.

A tropical wave is along 47W, south of 12N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 02N to 09N between 40W and 53W.

Another tropical wave is along 59W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the wave axis S of 11N. This tropical wave will move across the Windward Islands tonight into Sat increasing the likelihood of showers.

A tropical wave is over the eastern caribbean along 71W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 kt. Convection is limited over the Caribbean waters.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N16W and continues southwestward to 05N28W. The ITCZ extends from 05N28W to 07N45W. Convection in this area is primarily associated with the tropical waves previously mentioned.

Gulf Of America

Recent satellite derived wind data indicate fresh to strong E to SE winds over the eastern Gulf and north of a dissipating stationary front that extends across western Cuba into the SE Gulf to near 23N87W. Similar wind speeds are also noted over the eastern Bay of Campeche, and in the W Gulf W of 95W. Moderate seas prevail across much of the Gulf, except for the Bay of Campeche where slight seas are prevalent. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the frontal boundary.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the Gulf region. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will support moderate winds to pulse to fresh, occasionally strong, during the evenings.

Caribbean Sea

The Atlantic ridge, anchored by a 1030 mb high pressure located near 32N31W, reaches the NE Caribbean. The ridge, combined with the Colombian low, supports fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas in the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds and moderate seas will persist across the Caribbean into Sat as the Atlantic ridge north of the area weakens and shifts eastward. The exception will be fresh to strong pulses in the Gulf of Honduras tonight. Winds will begin to increase again over the central Caribbean by Sat night, and over the NW part of the basin early next week as the pressure gradient tightens between the Atlantic ridge and broad area of low pressure over the eastern Pacific offshore of Central America.

Atlantic Ocean

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in the Meteo-France forecast region.

A frontal boundary extends from SE of Bermuda to the southern Bahamas and western Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing over much of the central and southern Bahamas, while more scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing along the remainder of the front NE of the Bahamas. High pressure located over the SE United States follows this system. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge, supporting moderate to fresh trades across the vast majority of the Atlantic W of 30W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas are found north of 18N and east of 30W. Gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal boundary extends from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and western Cuba. The front will dissipate late into Sat, as high pressure builds across the area. This pattern will allow gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas into early next week.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Adams