Tropics Watch


Gulf
Atlantic
Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern Atlantic are associated with a strong tropical wave. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur during the next several days due to marginally conducive environmental conditions. This wave is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical eastern and central Atlantic through the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, low, 20 percent.

Posted 1 hour, 13 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Cangialosi/Papin

Tropics Watch Satellite

Tropical Waves

A tropical wave between the African coast and Cabo Verde Islands has an axis along 20W from 16N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N to 12N E of 23W. This tropical wave has a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 39W and from 16N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 36W and 40W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 49W from 11N southward to 06N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 09N between 47W and 52W.

The axis of a tropical wave has moved into the eastern Carribbean along 63W from 18N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends behind this wave from 07N to 11N between 54W and 58W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 82W from 19N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the SW Caribbean south of 12N.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal near 14N17W to 07N22W to 05N39W. The ITCZ then continues from 05N39W to 05N45W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section, no significant convection is occurring along these features.

Gulf Of Mexico

Early this morning the diurnal trough that developed along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula has moved west into the Bay of Campeche. This is supporting numerous moderate to isolated strong convection E of 20N. This trough is also producing fresh E-NE winds offshore of the NW Yucatan Peninsula, from 20N to 22N between 89W and 92W. High pressure ridging prevails across the rest of the Gulf. Light to gentle E winds prevail over the NE Gulf, with gentle to moderate E-SE winds elsewhere. Seas are 3-5 ft range in western and central Gulf and 2-4 ft the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to E winds will prevail through early next week. A diurnally induced trough will bring fresh E to SE winds NW of the Yucatan peninsula through tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the eastern and central Gulf through the weekend.

Caribbean Sea

In the NW Caribbean, a weak surface trough is analyzed from the coast of Cuba near 22N83W southward to 18N83W. Convection previous associated with this feature has diminished. A weak pressure gradient prevails over the Caribbean waters, supporting moderate trades over most of the Caribbean, The exception is in the central Caribbean within 80 nm of the coast of Colombia where trades are locally fresh, and in the NW Caribbean where trades are light to gentle. Seas are 4-6 ft in the central and eastern Caribbean, and 2-4 ft in the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail across the basin through the weekend. By Mon, fresh to strong easterly winds will return to the south-central Caribbean and to the Gulf of Honduras Tue. A tropical wave is expected to move across the eastern Caribbean into Sat. This will enhance convection in this area through Sat and shift to the central Caribbean by Sun.

Atlantic Ocean

A weakening surface trough is analyzed along the N Florida coast. N of 27N and W of 78W, scattered moderate convection continues. A second surface trough is analyzed from 29N55W to 25N56W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring in association with this trough N of 25N between 54W and 62W. Light to gentle trades are noted north of the Bahamas off the coast of Florida. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the remainder of the discussion waters, except near the Cabo Verde Islands where NE winds are fresh to locally strong. Seas are 3-6 ft across most of the Atlantic, except 6-9 ft in the area of fresh winds near the Cabo Verde Islands.

For the forecast, quiescent conditions are expected through the weekend. A surface trough is to move northwest through Sun, staying north of the Lesser and Greater Antilles.

Posted 1 hour, 8 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature