HURRICANES


TROPICS WATCH


Gulf
Atlantic

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for subtropical development over the northwest Atlantic.

Northwestern Atlantic: A non-tropical low pressure system centered over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean about 300 miles north of Bermuda is producing storm-force winds. Although the cyclone is producing some thunderstorm activity near the center, it is embedded in a cold air mass with nearby frontal boundaries. The low is expected to move northeastward today and northward tonight, bringing the system over much colder waters and across Atlantic Canada by early Tuesday. Therefore, it is unlikely that the low will transition to a subtropical or tropical cyclone. Nevertheless, the system is expected to remain a strong non-tropical low during the next day or so, and additional information, including storm-force wind warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for this system. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on May 15, 2023, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the off-season. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, low, near 0 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Posted 1 week, 5 days ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Cangialosi

Special Features

Atlantic Large Swell:

Low pressure of 1012 mb is located near 28N44W. A large area of fresh to strong winds are noted of the low center. Large swell generated by this system continues to propagate across the Atlantic forecast waters, with seas of 10 to 12 ft covering mainly the area N of 28N and E of 50W. Winds and seas will gradually diminish this evening as the low weakens. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.

Caribbean Gale Warning:

The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and the Colombian/Panamanian low will support pulsing minimal gale force winds over the south-central Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia tonight and Sun night. Seas will build to 10 to 12 ft with the strongest winds. Marine conditions will improve slightly during the day. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 08N13W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 04N40W to the equator near 50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03S to 04N between 11W and 48W.

Gulf Of Mexico

A surface trough extends across the SW Gulf, with high pressure prevailing elsewhere. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, are noted over the NW Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-7 ft are elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure shifting eastward across the Gulf States into the western Atlantic will sustain fresh easterly winds across the the southern Gulf into tonight and the Straits of Florida through Sun. Fresh to strong southerly winds are also expected at the northwestern and west-central Gulf through tonight, ahead of a cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf Sun, then stall and dissipate by Mon night. Afterward, gentle to moderate easterly winds will prevail for the entire Gulf into late week.

Caribbean Sea

A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please see the Special Features section above for more details.

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range over the central Caribbean, and 5-7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, gale-force ENE trades at the south-central Caribbean Sea will redevelop this evening. They will reach gale force again Sun evening, and likely pulse again Tue night. Fresh to strong easterly trades will prevail south of Cuba and near the Windward Passage through Sun night, and across the north- central Caribbean through the forecast period.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Special Features section above for information on large swell propagating across the central Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N62W to the Bahamas. Low pressure of 1012 mb is located near 28N44W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the low. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere N of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds are S of 20N and W of 30W, with moderate to fresh winds E of 30W. Seas are in the 8-12 ft range N of 25N between 30W and 55W, and 6-8 ft elsewhere N of 20N and E of 60W. Seas of 3-6 ft are found W of 60W, with Seas of 5-8 ft over the remainder of the Atlantic discussion waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front extends from just SE of Bermuda to the Central Bahamas. This front will dissipate by later Sun. A tight pressure gradient will support fresh to strong NE to E winds and building seas across the Bahamas, including the Great Bahama Bank and north of the Windward passage through Sun. Southerly flow will increase offshore northeastern Florida Sun night ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the western Atlantic by Mon night.

Posted 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Al