A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system centered a couple of hundred miles northwest of the Madeira Islands continues to produce a broad area of showers and thunderstorms well to the east of the center. This low has changed little in organization over the last 24 hours, and environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for it to acquire subtropical characteristics over the next day or so as it drifts southwestward. Afterwards, conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development. Regardless of subtropical development, this system will continue to produce strong winds and locally heavy rains in the Madeira Islands through Tuesday. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. Their website is: www.meteofrance.com /previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2.
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N13W to 06N31W. The ITCZ continues from 06N31W to 06N40W to the coast of N Brazil near 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-12N between 14W-32W, and from 05N-09N between 37W-45W.
Gulf Of Mexico
Gale force winds have diminished to strong for Gulf waters adjacent to Veracruz and in the Bay of Campeche. Winds and seas will decrease further today as high pressure builds into the area. The cold front that was responsible for the gale conditions has moved SE of the area, taking association convection with it out of the basin. The only remaining precipitation in the Gulf is cold air advection induced showers over the Bay of Campeche.
A 1028 mb high pressure is centered just S of Brownsville, Texas near 24N97W. This high pressure center will move E and gradually lift N toward the northern Gulf coast today.
High pressure will quickly cross the region tonight, with strong SE return flow setting up Wed in the NW Gulf, ahead of a cold front that will enter the Gulf Wed night. By Thu night, this front will be from the Florida Panhandle into the Bay of Campeche, with gale conditions likely redeveloping off Veracruz and continuing through Fri. The cold front will move SE of the Gulf Sat.
A cold front extends from western Cuba near 22N80W to Guatemala near 16N89W. Scattered moderate convection is located along and within 90 nm N and W of the boundary. Farther S, to the north of the eastward extension of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough, numerous strong thunderstorms exist from 09N to 15N between 75W and 84W, offshore the coasts of Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica. Elsewhere across the basin, generally moderate to fresh trades prevail, and scattered moderate convection has developed just S of Hispaniola.
Moderate to fresh trades will continue across most of the basin through the week. A cold front over the NW Caribbean this morning will reach eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras tonight, then stall and gradually dissipate. Fresh to strong winds and building seas can be expected in the wake of this front through Wed night. Looking ahead, another front may enter the Yucatan Channel by late Sat.
Please see the Special Features section above for details on low pressure in the far eastern Atlantic NW of the Madeira Islands.
A cold front stretches from near 31N74W to the NW Bahamas and western Cuba near 22N81W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are located within 60 nm both sides of the front. Over the central Atlantic, a surface trough extends from a low pressure center NE of Bermuda to 31N50W to 22N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is located east of this trough, N of 22N between 42W and 50W.
The western Atlantic will reach a Bermuda to central Cuba line by Wed morning, then weaken and drift SE into late week. Strong NW and higher seas can be expected in the wake of this front, mainly N of 27N and W of 70W through tonight. Looking ahead, another cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida Sat.
Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik