Tropics Watch

Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2020. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

Posted 2 months ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Beven

Tropics Watch Satellite

Special Features

A 1016 mb low is presently located northwest of the canary islands near 20.5W, moving southwest and deepening. Meteo France is forecasting near gale to gale for the zone of canarias until Sunday 23/1200 UTC. The outlook for the next 24 hours calls for near gale to gale for zones irving, madeira, meteor, canarias, and tarfaya. See the meteo France website: meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 12W to 17W. The ITCZ extends from 17W to 30W to the coast of Brazil near 44W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02S-05S between 16W-23W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N-05S between 25W-45W.

Gulf of Mexico

A 1035 mb high is centered over Mississippi near 90W producing 15-30 kt northeast winds over the Gulf of Mexico. Broken to overcast cold air stratocumulus clouds cover the basin south of 29N.

Strong to near gale force northwest winds will prevail this morning offshore Veracruz, Mexico, with fresh to locally strong northeast winds elsewhere across the Gulf. This winds will diminish through the weekend as high pressure builds into the northern Gulf. Another cold front will move into the northwest Gulf mon night into tue, followed by a stronger front tue night into wed. By wed night, this front is forecast to be southeast of the area. Behind the front, gales are likely in the southwest Gulf wed and wed night.

Caribbean Sea

As of 22/0900 UTC, a cold front extends from east Cuba near 76W to Belize near 88W. The front is mostly void of precipitation. 20-25 kt northerly winds are north of the front, to include the Yucatan channel. 10-25 kt tradewinds are over the central and east Caribbean with strongest winds along the coast of north Colombia. In the upper levels, zonal flow with strong subsidence is noted.

Strong northeast to east winds off the coast of Colombia will pulse each night through early next week. A cold front that early this morning stretches from east Cuba to Belize will reach from Hispaniola to Nicaragua by tonight, then stall from Puerto Rico to Costa Rica for the start of next week. Fresh to locally strong winds will prevail behind the front through the weekend, especially through the windward passage and the Lee of Cuba. Another cold front is likely to move into the northwest Caribbean wed night.

Atlantic Ocean

As of 22/0900 UTC, a cold front over the west Atlantic extends from 60W to east Cuba near 76W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the front north of 27N. A surface trough is east of the Leeward Islands from 57W to 57W moving west. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough axis. A 1033 mb high is centered over the Azores near 25W. A 1016 mb low is northwest of the canary islands near 20.5W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the low center. The low is expected to move southwest over the next 24 hours and deepen. Near gale to gale force winds over the canary islands. See the special features section above.

The west Atlantic cold front will move southeast through the weekend, reaching Hispaniola tonight, then stalling over Puerto Rico by the start of next week. Near gale conditions are expected behind the front today, and if low pressure develops along the front tonight, another round of near gale conditions are possible north of 23N and east of 65W for the latter half of the weekend. Large north swell associated with the front will spread southeast through the weekend while gradually decaying. Winds and seas will diminish early next week, then increase over the northwest waters mon night through wed ahead of the next cold front.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Formosa

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature