COVID-19 modeling predicts peak in omicron cases in 2 to 3 weeks

A complex math equation is helping predict when we can finally see a decline in COVID-19 cases. Dr. Juan Gutierrez, chair of mathematics at UTSA, predicts a peak in omicron cases in two to three weeks but worries what could happen after that.

SAN ANTONIO – COVID modeling, a complex math equation, is helping predict when we can finally see a decline in COVID-19 cases. Dr. Juan Gutierrez, chair of mathematics at UTSA, predicts a peak in omicron cases in two to three weeks.

“Until the world is vaccinated, we will be subject to the risk of COVID. This could keep coming back. The next variant, sigma, could emerge at any point in time,” Gutierrez said.

Gutierrez said COVID modeling takes numerous variables into account. It looks at how infectious a particular strain is, vaccination rates in an area and mandates in place, among other factors.

For mid-July of 2021, Gutierrez estimated Bexar County would have 50,000 to 200,000 cases and 750 to 3,000 deaths. The actual cases and deaths came out to 100,000 and 1,400, respectively.

“Our future is at stake, so please get a vaccine. Please use face masks until this passes,” Gutierrez.

He warns that more COVID variants will continue to appear if we don’t get more people vaccinated.

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About the Authors:

John Paul Barajas is a reporter at KSAT 12. Previously, he worked at KRGV 5 in the Rio Grande Valley. He has a degree from the University of Houston. In his free time, he likes to get a workout in, spend time on the water and check out good eats and drinks.

Joe Arredondo is a photojournalist at KSAT 12.