TEXAS – If you’ve been watching the polls lately, you’ve probably noticed something unusual — Texas is competitive right now in a way it hasn’t been in years.
New polling averages show Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton by about three points in the U.S. Senate race. In the governor’s race, incumbent Greg Abbott holds a slim lead over Democrat Gina Hinojosa — but it’s within the margin of error.
The Senate race is rated a toss-up. Talarico sits at about 47.9 percent to Paxton’s 44.8 percent in the latest averages. The governor’s race is rated likely Republican — but Abbott’s lead has shrunk by 2.5 points since August, with Hinojosa now at 45.8 percent to Abbott’s 47.3 percent.
But here’s the thing — not all polls are created equal, and the margins are tight enough that the race could go either way.
Jon Taylor, a political science professor and department chair at UT San Antonio, says the key is knowing which polls to pay attention to.
“Look at the margin of error — anything above three and a half percent, you’ve got to take with a grain of salt,” Taylor said, “and remember — they’re always lagging behind. That poll you saw today? It was done last week.”
You’ll notice some polls use “likely voters” and others use “registered voters” — and that distinction matters a lot.
Taylor says “likely voters” polls are the ones worth watching because they filter down to people who say they are actually going to show up on Election Day — giving a more accurate picture of where the race really stands.
More than $183 million has been spent on Senate race ads alone — with Republicans outspending Democrats by more than three to one, pouring in $140 million compared to Democrats’ $43.7 million.
Taylor says that kind of outside spending — including money from Elon Musk and Donald Trump — is a signal that Republican internal polling may not be as comfortable as they’d like.
“I think that’s why you’re seeing the alarm bells being rung — and why you’re seeing people dumping in a ton of money. Elon Musk, Donald Trump, to name but two.”
Election Day in Texas is November 3, 2026. The deadline to register is Oct. 5, and a registration application can be started on the Secretary of State’s website.
Taylor’s bottom line? Don’t read too much into any single poll — but don’t ignore the trend either.
“These races are extremely competitive — something that was not necessarily expected in the governor’s race or in down-ballot races. Which says that perhaps we might be missing something in terms of voter anger and voter discontent.”
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