SAN ANTONIO – As the NBA world gears up for the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery on Monday in Chicago, the San Antonio Spurs find themselves in a familiar and intriguing position.
With ping-pong balls set to determine the fate of the top four picks in a highly touted draft class, the Spurs are poised to add more talent to their young core, headlined by Victor Wembanyama and 2024 NBA Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle.
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What are the odds for a No. 1 pick?
The Spurs finished the 2024-25 regular season with a 34-48 record, the eighth-worst in the NBA.
This gives San Antonio the eighth-best odds for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery. According to the NBA, the Spurs’ chances are as follows:
- 6% chance at the No. 1 pick
- 6.5% chance at the No. 2 pick
- 7.1% chance at the No. 3 pick
- 7.8% chance at the No. 4 pick
- 26.3% total chance of landing a top-four pick
The Spurs’ lottery position was significantly influenced by Wembanyama’s deep vein thrombosis diagnosis, which sidelined the 7-foot-3 superstar after the All-Star break.
Prior to his diagnosis, Wembanyama accounted for 21.5% of the Spurs’ points (24.3 per game), 24.4% of their rebounds (11 per game), and a staggering 58.5% of their blocks (3.8 per game).
However, San Antonio’s late-season surge — going 22-21 over the final 43 games — kept them from falling further, leaving them in a middle ground: too talented to tank outright, but not strong enough for a play-in push.
Beyond their selection, the Spurs also hold an unprotected first-round pick from the Atlanta Hawks, acquired in the 2022 Dejounte Murray trade.
The Hawks, with a 36-46 record, finished with the 14th-worst record, giving them a slim 0.7% chance at the No. 1 pick and a 3.8% chance at a top-four selection.
Therefore, it’s highly likely the Spurs will receive the No. 14 pick to cap off their two lottery selections.
Elite prospects in the 2025 NBA Draft
San Antonio has a storied history of lottery fortune, landing the No. 1 pick in 1987 (David Robinson), 1997 (Tim Duncan), and 2023 (Victor Wembanyama).
In 2024, the Spurs moved from fifth to fourth to draft Castle.
Since 1987, the Spurs have stayed put or improved their expected slot in all of their eight lottery appearances, giving fans reason to hope for another leap.
The 2025 NBA Draft is considered one of the deepest in recent memory, with top prospects like Duke’s Cooper Flagg, Rutgers’ Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper, and Baylor’s VJ Edgecombe headlining a class with great potential.
For the Spurs, who are on the tail end of rebuilding around Wembanyama and newly acquired All-Star guard De’Aaron Fox, the lottery could be pivotal.
A top-four pick could land a game-changer like Flagg, a 6-foot-9 forward with elite two-way potential, or Bailey, a 6-foot-10 wing known for his shot-making.
Even at No. 8, a prospect like Illinois’ point guard/shooting guard Kasparas Jakucionis, who hails from Lithuania, could be an investment for the future.
The Hawks’ pick at No. 14 offers a chance to snag a high-upside player to address long-term needs for perimeter shooting and frontcourt versatility.
Whether they jump into the top four or stay at No. 8 and No. 14, San Antonio is poised to add talent that could propel them toward the playoffs in 2025-26.
The lottery draft begins at 6 p.m. on Monday. The 2025 NBA Draft begins June 25.
