SAN ANTONIO – The San Antonio Spurs find themselves in uncharted waters after seeing their 27-point halftime lead melt at the hands of the New York Knicks in Game 4 of the NBA Finals on Wednesday.
Fans watched it from their couch at home. The Spurs all but watched it from the three-point line. But I digress.
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Whether or not Spurs fans believe their team should be heading into Saturday’s Game 5 with the series even at two games apiece, it’s time to move on. Now, it’s time to assess what it’ll take for San Antonio to bounce back and do what only 14 teams in NBA history have pulled off — and only one in the NBA Finals.
That’s winning three straight games to overcome a 1-3 series deficit.
On the bright side, two of those teams joined the club this year. Let’s start there.
How can the Spurs become the third team to rally from 1-3 this season?
Historically, in a seven-game playoff series, teams that have gone down 3 games to 1 have come back to win the series in 15 of 288 tries, or 5% of the time. That number used to be 4% — until this year’s Philadelphia 76ers and Detroit Pistons came around in the first round of this year’s playoffs.
So how did they do it? One reason is they got big contributions from their stars.
Let’s focus on the Pistons, another young and frisky team like the Spurs. All-NBA point guard Cade Cunningham scored over 30 points in each of Detroit’s final three games of their series against the Orlando Magic, which all had to be Piston wins. He rarely saw the bench, racking up 44, 42 and 39 minutes in those games.
Tobias Harris, a 15-year veteran, also played a pivotal role. Harris was the team’s second-leading scorer in each of the latter three games and scored 30 alongside Cunningham in Detroit’s decisive Game 7 win.
And whoever wasn’t scoring the basketball for the Pistons was dominating on the glass. Players like Jalen Duren and Ausar Thompson helped give Detroit the rebound advantage in each of the final three wins, and their scrappy 43% shooting was enough to do the rest.
The 76ers had a similar formula against the Boston Celtics, led by Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid. Lean on your stars, and don’t take a possession off.
Every Philadelphia starter played heavy minutes, with little contribution from the bench. They also got a little luck, as the usual sharp-shooting Celtics went ice cold from the three-point line. (Ironic considering how San Antonio just performed from three in Game 4.)
Whatever attack plan the Spurs roll with going forward, they have to play smarter and more efficiently. There’s no time to waste. Victor Wembanyama cannot be off his game for a single minute.
Just like LeBron James wasn’t for the 2016 Cavaliers.
One team has overcome a 1-3 deficit in the NBA Finals. Do the Spurs have the same makeup?
Every basketball fan of a certain age remembers how special the 2016 NBA Finals was. It’s an anomaly in the history of basketball. Now, the ball is in the Spurs’ court to repeat that anomaly.
Unlike that Cleveland Cavaliers team, San Antonio won’t have to win three straight games against a team that won 73 games in the regular season with the greatest shooter in history in Stephen Curry. They do, however, have to win three straight games against a Knicks team that has won 14 of their last 15 games these playoffs and just stopped the presses with the largest comeback in the history of the NBA Finals.
So how did the Cavs pull it off? It’s pretty simple: LeBron James.
Not to take away from the other contributors on that Cleveland team, but the definition of carrying is what LeBron James did in games five, six and seven of the 2016 Finals.
The first and hardest order of business for a team down 3-1 is making the uphill climb in games five and six just to even the series again. In those games, James exploded with 41 points apiece, while also pacing the Cavs in assists, steals and blocks across the two games. Also notable: just three turnovers in 86 minutes of playing time. That was miracle number one.
Then, with everything on the line in Game 7, after playing 43 minutes each in the previous two games, James stayed on the court for a whopping 47 minutes of gametime. (There’s 48 minutes in an NBA game.) He didn’t hit the bench outside of a quick water break in the first quarter. That means he didn’t open the door for a game-changing point swing in his absence.
When the job was finished, James became the first player in NBA history to lead all players on both teams in points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks across an entire playoff series. And perhaps most notably, he played 131 of 144 minutes over the final three games of the series.
In other words, for the Spurs to pull off the same miracle rally against the Knicks, Wembanyama has to be amazing. But does he have it in him?
Spurs’ 1-3 deficit leaves a career-defining opportunity for Wembanyama
Wembanyama is San Antonio’s equivalent of LeBron James. He has been compared to Tim Duncan, Shaquille O’Neal and all of the other greatest big men in the history of basketball. It’s time for “The Alien” to work some sci-fi.
The Spurs will need ample contributions from their stars to have a chance at clawing their way back in the NBA Finals. That means heavy minutes for Wembanyama. But Wemby has only played 40 minutes in a game nine times in his career and never in back-to-back games. If the Spurs want a shot at a Game 7, let alone a Game 6, that likely will have to change.
It’s hard enough for a player Wemby’s size to play that many minutes at such a high clip; he’s already been playing at well above his season average in the playoffs. But it’s another thing to play 40 impactful minutes at the latest stage of a 100+ game season — and in the biggest games.
These young Spurs may very well be running on fumes and adrenaline at this point in the season. And even when Wembanyama has played 40 minutes or more in a game this season, San Antonio is just 3-4.
Remember, no team has come back to win the NBA Finals after dropping the first two games at home. That’s where the Spurs find themselves.
Now, Wembanyama and company must do the unthinkable to dig out of their latest hole — or not think anything at all.
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