Ten years ago, Steve Toth tried to pull off a coup against one of Texas’ most powerful Republicans.
Toth, at the time a former member of the Texas House, ran against longtime Rep. Kevin Brady in a 2016 primary that proved to be The Woodlands Republican’s closest race in decades. Along with two other right-wing challengers, Toth held Brady to 53% of the vote — his lowest total as an incumbent — while finishing second at 37%.
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Toth, a Conroe Republican who owns two pool maintenance companies, was re-elected to the Legislature in 2018 and has been one of the body’s most conservative members ever since. But this year, Toth is trying to do what he failed to in 2016 — take down a well-known Texas Republican in the U.S. House by opposing Rep. Dan Crenshaw, R-Atascosita, in the March 3 Republican primary for the 2nd Congressional District.
Crenshaw, a frequent presence on cable news with a popular political podcast, voted for President Donald Trump’s stated position 100% of the time in 2025 and has made his name in Congress combating Mexican cartels and barring federal funding for gender-affirming care.
The former Navy SEAL has drawn the ire of figures in the right-wing media sphere, including Tucker Carlson, over Crenshaw’s support for Ukraine aid and his more hawkish foreign policy beliefs. Crenshaw also has called out some of the most right-wing members of the House Republican Caucus — who stand in the way of passing some legislation supported by the majority of the conference — as performative. He was among a handful of Texas Republicans to vote to certify the 2020 presidential election, saying on his podcast that members of Congress who opposed certification over alleged voting fraud knew their cause was a lie.
Toth is among Crenshaw’s loudest detractors and characterizes the race as a referendum on the ideological future of the Republican Party, saying there are so-called Republicans who “only care about sustaining power and keeping their own little clique in control” and that voters want Republicans who will “fight Democrats and not compromise.”
He frequently criticizes Crenshaw as insufficiently conservative and overly focused on foreign policy.
First elected to the Texas House in 2012, Toth served one term before an unsuccessful race for a state Senate seat in 2014. After challenging Brady in 2016, he won reelection to his old state House seat in 2018 and has served ever since, taking stands that established him as among the most conservative in the House.
In 2020 during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, he and Rep. Briscoe Cain protested the closing of small businesses by getting haircuts — which at the time violated state restrictions. Hours later, Gov. Greg Abbott allowed hair salons and barber shops, among other businesses, to reopen.
The Crenshaw campaign has argued that Toth’s legislative record is light and attacked him over state House votes on issues key to the region — property taxes and flood mitigation. Toth filed 79 bills in the 2025 legislative session, none of which passed the House. He was the joint author or sponsor on three bills signed into law in 2025 by Gov. Greg Abbott. His biggest legislative victory was the signing of a 2021 law he authored taking aim at the teaching of critical race theory in schools.
By contrast, Crenshaw said his record and his experience, such as increasing liquified natural gas exports and securing funding for flood mitigation projects, fits the district’s needs.
“You still need somebody up there who understands these problems and will continue to make sure that we’re making progress on all of these,” Crenshaw said in an interview. “The time is not now to start over, and especially with a guy like Steve Toth, who has a record of zero.”
The Toth-Crenshaw contest is the only Texas Republican primary where a local elected official is challenging a member of Congress. Toth said transitioning from state issues to federal politics would be smooth because “the Texas Legislature and Congress share many of the same concerns.”
“From the Border to Flooding the work isn’t done,” Toth told The Texas Tribune by text. “My opponent is spiking the football over federal money coming back to Harris County for flood control yet little to nothing has changed. Kingwood is every bit as vulnerable as we were when Harvey hit.”
The wave of endorsements in the race is most notable for who has not weighed in — Trump.
Crenshaw is the only House Republican incumbent in Texas not to be endorsed by the president, and the 2nd District Republican primary is one of only two Texas congressional contests where the president has not backed a candidate.
Trump endorsed Toth in his 2022 and 2024 races for the Texas House, but Crenshaw said he expects to hear good news from the president, saying Trump indicated months ago that he planned to support him.
“We’ve had really good conversations about it in the past,” Crenshaw said. “He’s gone so far as he’s told me yes, so it could happen any day.”
Inside the race
The 2nd Congressional District’s boundaries were slightly adjusted last year by the Legislature to include less of eastern Harris County, but the district remains strongly Republican — it would have elected Trump under the new boundaries by a 23-point margin. The district includes wealthy suburban areas like Kingwood and The Woodlands, one of the hubs of conservative activism and donor activity in Texas. It also includes Atascosita, Humble and Spring, as well as half of Montgomery County.
The race includes two other candidates, Martin Etwop and Nicholas Plumb — both with minimal campaign presence — raising the possibility of a May 26 runoff between the top two finishers.
In 2024, in a race with little spending on either side, Crenshaw finished 19 percentage points ahead of challenger Jameson Ellis.
Crenshaw maintains a significant financial advantage over Toth, outraising him by more than $1.3 million in 2025 and entering the year with a war chest of nearly $850,000 to Toth’s $300,000.
Crenshaw has also received about $1.29 million in support from outside groups, mostly from a pro-Crenshaw super PAC and a group backing Republican veterans.
Toth is backed by Robert Marling, a conservative megadonor and banker in The Woodlands who seeded a pro-Toth super PAC, Alamo Freedom Fighters PAC, with $250,000. Marling is the PAC’s only disclosed donor; thus far, it has spent nearly $290,000 in anti-Crenshaw ads and mailers.
In addition, Unrig Our Economy, a Democratic group, has spent more than $500,000 on ads blasting Crenshaw, and the presumptive Democratic nominee, Shaun Finnie, has attacked him on the airwaves as well.
Crenshaw has been endorsed by various House colleagues — including conservative firebrand Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio — and groups like the National Border Patrol Council and the NRA. And he has the support of various current and former local elected officials, from Brady to Harris County Commissioner Tom Ramsey to Texas Reps. Charles Cunningham and Sam Harless, both of whom represent Harris County.
Toth received the backing of conservative group Turning Point USA and Houston businessman Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale, who in 2018 backed Crenshaw. He also has been endorsed by Texas Right to Life, conservative radio host Kenny Webster, figures in the vaccine skepticism and home-schooling movements and 21 Republican colleagues from the Legislature, many among the body’s most conservative members.
On the issues
Crenshaw, who sits on the powerful Energy and Commerce and Intelligence committees, has sought to frame the race as a question of legislative seriousness.
Best-known for his national security work and celebrity status — Crenshaw appeared on “Saturday Night Live” in 2018 and has one of the most popular podcasts hosted by a politician — the four-term congressman has touted bringing to the district more than $200 million in federal funds for flood mitigation through earmarks and pushing for FEMA and Army Corps of Engineers projects.
“This is the stuff that actually saves people’s lives and property, the stuff that actually matters,” Crenshaw told The Houston Chronicle in an endorsement interview. “Doesn’t work well on Twitter … nerdy [liquified natural gas] export legislation — it doesn’t work so great on Twitter either. But it matters.”
Crenshaw and allies, including Bob Rehak, a Kingwood retiree who runs the well-known Reduce Flooding blog, have gone after Toth for voting against the creation of a Lake Houston dredging district, among other flooding bills.
Rehak has praised Crenshaw for securing flood infrastructure-related earmarks over the years, saying his effort to secure $4 million to widen the Walnut Lane Bridge in Kingwood, for example, “will improve the safety of tens of thousands of his constituents.”
Crenshaw has also criticized Toth on property taxes — a hot issue across the state. Toth, along with other hardline conservatives and Democrats, in September voted against Senate Bill 10, a measure to further limit how much cities and counties can raise property taxes annually without voter approval.
In a video posted on Facebook, Toth said the bill, after amendments drafted by conservative lawmakers were removed, would not have applied to most of the homes in his north Houston district and was not “Governor Abbott’s idea of property tax relief for all Texans.”
“It became a property tax cut in name only, kind of like being a Republican in name only,” Toth said. “You get that, don’t you Dan?”
Crenshaw has continued to hammer Toth on the issue, calling him a “RINO” and “liberal” in an ad. An anti-Toth spot from a group backing Crenshaw that started airing Thursday seized on the issue as well, saying the state representative does not stand with Republicans.
Toth thinks the GOP has not been bold enough, sapping support from once reliable conservative voters. He pointed to Senate District 9, which was once a reliably red seat but swung 34 percentage points toward Democrat Taylor Rehmet earlier this month.
“Republican voters hear all the rhetoric when we run for office, and they don’t follow through,” he said in a Facebook video. “Most guys get into office and they go from very conservative to very moderate — and you really don’t know what they stand for.”
“We’ve got to be unashamed in our willingness to wield power to do the right thing,” he added.
Crenshaw says there’s a difference between talking to generate attention and executing.
Crenshaw said he wants to build bipartisan support for a series of bills he’s authored to combat cartel activity and get buy-in from House leadership to move them forward. He also wants to push to reform energy permitting and to defund hospitals that perform gender affirming procedures on minors.
On some issues, Crenshaw said, “we shouldn’t compromise,” but governing in Washington is different than in Austin. Democratic buy-in is needed in the Senate, which requires a 60-vote majority to pass most bills — a reality Crenshaw said serious legislators understand.
“It’s still hard to get [Democrats] to the places we need to go to, but a guy like Steve Toth won’t have a chance of having the conversation, because he’s not a respectable person,” Crenshaw said. “He’s not a thoughtful person, an intellectual person. And so, you just don’t get any respect, and you’re not going to get anything done. That’s not what the district deserves.”
Toth said Crenshaw has lost support over an inability to take “thoughtful criticism,” arguing that he is a more successful legislator.
“I find it amazing, laughable even that a congressman who’s been in DC for over 7 years and hasn’t passed a single bill would criticize a Legislator who’s passed well over a dozen bills that are valued by Texas families,” Toth said via text.
Crenshaw authored provisions that were incorporated into the Republicans’ One Big Beautiful Bill in 2025, including reimbursing Texas for border spending. His bill to ban federal health insurance programs from covering specified gender transition procedures for minors passed the House in December.
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