HURRICANES
VIDEO FORECAST
TROPICS WATCH
Atlantic
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2026. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
Posted 3 months ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Bucci
Special Features
Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian low will support fresh to near gale-force trades across the central and eastern Caribbean through Mon. Winds offshore of Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the overnight hours through Sat night. Seas of 8 to 12 ft are expected with the strongest winds.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, then extends southwestward to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 03N35W to the coast of Brazil near 00S50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 04N between 17W and 37W.
Gulf Of America
A ridge from the Atlantic extends westward across Florida into the Gulf region supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds with moderate seas across most of the Gulf waters, including the Straits of Florida. Slight seas are noted offshore Florida. A surface trough is analyzed just W of the Yucatan Peninsula. A few showers and thunderstorms are near SE Louisiana. Similar convective activity is noted over northern Florida and just W of Tampa Bay.
For the forecast, a broad surface ridge extending southwestward from the Bermuda High will settle in the Gulf through midweek next week. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure over Mexico will support mainly moderate to fresh E to SE winds basin-wide, pulsing to between fresh and strong near the northern Yucatan and the western Gulf in the evenings. Seas will be slight to moderate through Wed.
Caribbean Sea
Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean.
The most recent scatterometer data provide observations of fresh to strong winds across the east and central Caribbean, with the strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt in the vicinity of Cabo Beata, Dominican Republic. Seas are in the 8 to 11 ft range within these wind speeds. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are noted in the lee of central Cuba, and also from 14N to 17N between 78W and 82W. These winds are the result of the pressure gradient between a 1029 mb high pressure located in the vicinity of Bermuda and the Colombian/Panamanian low. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce convection over parts of Cuba, Jamaica and the NW Caribbean, particularly S of 18N and W of 83W, including NE Honduras.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the Colombian low will support fresh to near gale-force trades across the central and eastern Caribbean through Tue. Winds offshore of northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the overnight hours through Sat night. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse in the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras through Sun night, then moderate to fresh thereafter. Large easterly trade-wind swell from the tropical North Atlantic will keep rough seas near the Lesser Antilles through Tue.
Atlantic Ocean
A ridge dominates the Atlantic forecast region, with a 1031 mb high pressure located E of the Azores, and a 1029 mb high pressure situated in the vicinity of Bermuda. Under the influence of this ridge, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas are observed N of 25N and E of 20W, including the Canary Islands, with the strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt between islands. Similar wind speeds are seen per scatterometer data offshore Mauritania and Western Sahara with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Fresh to locally strong trades are blowing S of 25N and E of 70W along the southern periphery of the ridge. Seas are 6 to 9 ft within these winds. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail south of 25N through Tue night, reaching strong speeds north of Hispaniola into the Windward passage at times. Rough seas will prevail within these winds and east of the central and southeast Bahamas through Tue. Moderate or weaker winds can be expected elsewhere across the region.
Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Gr
