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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of Sierra Leone and Liberia near 07N12W then runs westward to near 06N14W. The ITCZ continues from 06N14W to 03N30W to 02N43W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 07N between 13W and 25W and from 02N to 05N between 35W and 41W.

Gulf Of America

A cold front extends from the Florida Everglades to 24N87W, where it becomes and stationary front that continues W to just N of Tampico, Mexico. Convection previously associated with this boundary has diminished. A surface trough drifting west through the central Bay of Campeche is generated numerous moderate to scattered strong convection, especially over the north-central bay. Moderate NE to E winds are N of the frontal boundary, with seas of 3 to 5 ft. To the S of the front, mainly gentle winds prevail with seas of 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to build over the northern Gulf as a weak frontal system from SW Florida to N of Tampico continues to weaken. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are expected over much of the basin through Sun as the front slowly dissipates. Locally fresh NE winds will be possible in the Bay of Campeche on Sun as a trough develops over the Yucatan Peninsula and moves westward. Looking ahead, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas will develop over the central and eastern Gulf early next week as a cold front pushes off the coast of the southeastern United States. Locally strong NE winds and rough seas will be possible through the Florida Straits.

Caribbean Sea

Convection that had been over waters adjacent to Central America has moved well inland overnight, leaving the basin void of any significant convection. Strong NE to E winds are noted within 120 nm offshore northern Colombia, along with seas of 9 to 11 ft. For most of the remainder of the basin, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas dominate. The exception is the NW basin, where winds are NE at moderate or weaker, and seas are slight.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas are expected offshore of northern Colombia through early next week as low pressure prevails over the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas will occur over much of the basin through this weekend, supported by high pressure to the north. Winds may occasionally pulse to strong speeds in the Gulf of Venezuela. Elsewhere, rough seas in E to SE swell in the Atlantic waters will slowly subside into early Sat, before rough seas redevelop Sat evening through Sun. Looking ahead, a cold front passing to the north of the Caribbean will support widespread fresh NE winds west of 70W by early next week, with strong winds possible through the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary 1016 mb low pressure is centered at 29N56W. Fresh to strong S winds and rough seas are noted E of the low, N of 25N and E to 50W. Numerous moderate convection also exists in this region. Winds W of the low have diminished, but a broad area of rough seas extend southward to 20N and W to 65W. A cold front extends from 31N73W to the NW Bahamas to near Miami, Florida. Ahead of the front, scattered moderate convection is noted N of 26N, eastward to 70W. N of 28N, fresh winds are noted on both sides of the front, E to 65W. Winds are NW W of the front, and SW to the E of the front. Seas in this area are 6 to 9 ft.

In the E Atlantic, A cold front extends from Morocco through the Canary Islands, to 27N25W, then transitions to a stationary front and arches NW to beyond 31N35W. For all waters E of 50W, fresh to locally strong trades dominate, with rough to very rough seas. The highest seas, up to 14 ft, are focused around 22N38W, 28N28W, and N of the Canary Islands. For the remainder of Atlantic waters, winds are fresh or weaker, and seas are moderate or weaker.

For the forecast W of 55W, widespread rough seas in N to NE swell associated with the low near 29N56W will continue east of 64W. Seas will slowly diminish early Sat through Sat afternoon. Elsewhere, fresh to strong S to SW winds and rough seas will occur offshore of Florida to 70W ahead of a cold front moving off the coast of the southeastern U.S. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will push off the coast of the southeastern U.S. Early on Mon, supporting widespread strong NE winds and rapidly building seas in the wake of the front into the middle of next week.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik