FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS
- FRIDAY: Near 100°
- LORENA WEAKENING: But leftover moisture and rain-making energy move into Texas this weekend
- RAIN: Becoming scattered second half of the weekend
- RAINFALL TOTALS & UNCERTAINTY: Localized heavy rain could create bullseyes of 5″+ but exact locations still unclear
FORECAST
HEATING UP
Before rain chances ramp up, South Central Texas will bake under sunny skies and dry heat. Highs will soar to triple digits and dry. Expect heat indices near or just below the actual air temperature.
LORENA & WEEKEND RAIN
Tropical Storm Lorena is weakening, but its leftover tropical moisture and energy will surge into Texas over the weekend. This influx of moisture, combined with a cold front sagging south, will increase the potential for heavy rainfall Sunday into Monday.
The path and timing of the remnants of Lorena will be vital to rainfall location and totals. Sunday afternoon/evening brings the highest rain chance, with lingering showers possible into Monday.
Forecast models show precipitable water values near 2 inches, which is well above average for early September. That means storms could be very efficient rain producers. While the exact location of the heaviest rain is still uncertain, isolated bullseyes of 5 inches or more are possible.
UNCERTAINTY & LOCALIZED IMPACTS
Where will the heaviest rain fall? That’s still to be determined. Think of it as a “rain lottery”—some neighborhoods may get drenched while others stay mostly dry. Localized flooding is possible in areas that receive repeated downpours, especially in low-lying or poorly drained spots. Plan ahead for rapidly changing conditions, especially if you have travel or outdoor activities scheduled late in the weekend.
Please check back as we’ll continue to update this forecast.
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