The term ‘Super El Niño’ is catching extra attention in the media. This is just another way to say we’ve observed strong indications of a strong El Niño.
The correct terms to classify an outstanding El Niño are Strong El Niño or Very Strong El Niño.
The exaggeration doesn’t mean we’re expecting to see intense changes in our weather. Instead, it means we could have a cooler winter with above-average precipitation.
KEY POINTS:
- ‘Super El Niño’ is no different than saying a strong El Niño.
- Texas is in a better position to see more rain, though not guaranteed.
WHAT IS EL NIÑO/LA NIÑA?
El Niño and La Niña are natural weather patterns that happen in the Pacific Ocean.
In order to understand El Niño (and La Niña, for that matter), we first need to touch on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
ENSO is the climate pattern involving changing sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Warming and cooling cycles of ENSO affect weather patterns across the United States and also impact rainfall distribution in the tropics.
- El Niño: The warming cycle of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean waters. Winds at the surface, which typically blow from east to west, weaken and can even start blowing in the opposite direction. This allows ocean waters to warm, leading to El Niño conditions.
- La Niña: The cooling cycle of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean waters. Opposite of El Niño, surface winds strengthen and shift the warm surface water farther west at a stronger rate. To replace that warm water, cold water from below then rises to the surface, creating cooler sea-surface temperatures which lead to La Niña conditions.
- Neutral: Neither El Niño or La Niña conditions. Sea-surface temperatures in an ENSO-Neutral cycle are close to average.
Whether we are in the El Niño or La Niña phase of ENSO, changes in our weather pattern are more noticeable in the winter.
EL NIÑO USUALLY BRINGS TEXAS MORE RAIN
During an El Niño winter, the weather-making jet stream is in a much better position for rain in Texas, pulling in even more moisture from the Pacific Ocean.
In El Niño, wetter than average weather is possible. However, this is not a guarantee.
El Niño helps tip the scales in our favor for rain, but it does not promise complete drought elimination.
ANOTHER COLD SNAP?
El Niño conditions don’t sound the alarm for intense winter weather.
We expect cooler temperatures because of above-average precipitation.
The occurrence of a cold snap with freezing temperatures and snowy weather is not correlated with El Niño in South Texas. That does not mean it is impossible, but it is not typical. As is usual for every winter in South Central Texas, we may still have one or two minor ice events.
PREVIOUSLY STRONG EL NIÑOS
There have been 4 winter seasons during strong or very strong El Niños since 1990.
Their precipitation totals have varied, but each winter has had more than the average 1.90″ of precipitation. Snow was not observed during these winters either.
Remember, the meteorological winter months are December, January, and February.
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