SAN ANTONIO – Despite recent heavy rainfall and storm activity, the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, released on Thursday, shows only modest improvements for San Antonio and surrounding South Central Texas counties.
While the skies have opened up in recent weeks with rounds of intense thunderstorms, hail and localized flooding, the long-term drought continues to grip the region.
WHAT IS IT?
What is the U.S. Drought Monitor?
The U.S. Drought Monitor is a map updated every Thursday that highlights areas of drought conditions across the United States and its territories. It’s compiled by hand using a variety of data, including:
- Rainfall totals
- Soil moisture levels
- Streamflow and reservoir levels
- Local observations and reports
The resulting map categorizes areas into different drought severity levels, ranging from abnormally dry (D0) to exceptional drought (D4).
“Improvements are based on Positive responses in the long-term Edwards Aquifer index wells,” according to Alison Tarter, a research specialist with the office of the Texas State Climatologist.
RECENT RAINFALL
Over the past few weeks, San Antonio has experienced several rounds of intense weather. A record-breaking rainfall event on June 12 dropped more than 6.4 inches in a single day, bringing the city’s annual total to around 18.2 inches — well above average for this time of year.
However, while these numbers look promising on the surface, they don’t make up for a significant cumulative rainfall deficit of over 38 inches since 2022. That deficit underscores just how deep and long-standing this drought is.
In January and February, San Antonio had only received 1.71 inches of rainfall total, pushing most of South Central Texas into exceptional drought (D4) territory. While some improvements have occurred since then, the change has been marginal.
CURRENT CONDITIONS
“Although there have been recent rains in drought-stricken areas of Texas, much more is needed to see improvement in drought conditions,“ said Ricky Richter with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality.
As of Thursday, 36% of Texas remains in a drought. Although there have been some improvements in the East, consider areas along Interstate 10 and beyond; there are still many areas across South Central Texas experiencing exceptional Drought.
AQUIFER & RESERVOIRS
The Edwards Aquifer has seen a 7-foot increase in its key index well (J-17) thanks to recent rains. This is a notable shift, as the J-17 well had been locked in Exceptional Drought (D4) since last fall.
Medina Lake crept up to a 2.5% capacity — a marginal increase that underscores just how much more is needed.
The Hondo index well remains deep in D4 territory despite climbing out of historic low values.
Importantly, these gains are not enough to reverse the larger hydrologic drought. Experts caution that months of sustained above-average rainfall across the aquifer’s recharge zones are necessary for full recovery.
LOOKING AHEAD
The La Niña cycle has ended, and we are now entering a neutral ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) phase, which may increase the chances of more regular rainfall in the coming months.
If current aquifer levels hold, eastern Bexar County may see slight improvements on the drought map next week. However, that depends on how quickly water levels respond to recent rainfall and whether future precipitation can keep pace.
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