STORY HIGHLIGHTS
RECORD DROUGHT: Current drought is rivaling one seen in the 1950s
LOW COMMODITY PRICES: Cost of farming continues to rise, while crop prices stay low
FARMERS SCALE BACK: Farmers are forced to choose, some opting to leave the business
MEXICO FILLING VOID: More and more produce is now coming from Mexico
RECORD-SETTING DROUGHT
“It’s hard to even have any hope sometimes,” said Steve Cargil.
Cargill’s family has farmed on land in Uvalde County for more than 70 years, and he’ll tell you that farmers in the winter garden region have faced Mother Nature’s wrath plenty of times before. This time, however, it feels different.
“We are right there with the drought of the 50s,” said Cargil. “I mean, its amazing how we’re tracking and how serious it is.“
Cargill has a unique perspective. Not only is he a farmer and owner of a produce company, but he also serves as a board member for the Edwards Aquifer Authority.
He is privy to the dismal numbers plaguing the Edwards Aquifer. A multi-year drought, which began in 2019, has taken its toll. Since then, only 2021 has seen above-average rainfall.
Currently, the Uvalde pool of the aquifer is in Stage 5 pumping restrictions, the most severe. Farmers must take on a 44% reduction in pumping.
These conditions are leading to legitimate fears.
“You [may] come out one day and turn your well on, and nothing’s coming out,” said Cargil.
COMPOUNDING ISSUES
Drought may be front and center on farmers’ minds, but it’s not the only issue at play.
“The cotton price yesterday was 61 cents,” explained Cargil. “That’s less than it was in the 1970s.”
While the cost to farm has gone up, commodity prices have fallen, or at the very least, stayed steady. In other words, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to make a profit from commercial farming.
Politics and trade can also play a role in commodity prices.
“Now, you have to pick or choose what you’re going to do,” said Cargil.
Strategy is everything these days. Unlike in decades past, when you could use your field year-round, especially in the winter garden region, that’s not feasible any longer. Farmers are now making tough choices.
Cargill said some farmers are being forced to sell their water to stay afloat, while others are folding up shop altogether.
“I think we’re right at that point,” admitted Cargil.
WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR YOU AND ME?
Grocery stores like H-E-B and Kroger do buy from local farmers, and if there were a reduction in product, prices could increase.
“I would think at some point they’re going to react because there’s just going to be less and less grown,” said Cargil.
Filling the void of local farmers is our southern neighbor, Mexico. Farmers there face fewer restrictions and are picking up the slack.
While just over half of our produce is still grown in the United States, that number continues to decline and is significantly lower than in decades past.
Meanwhile, Mexico’s contribution is rising, with nearly 30% of our produce arriving from across the border.
“My fear is that we start depending too heavily on Mexico for vegetable production and they wake up one day and say, ’Where’s our food at?” said Cargil.
COULD SOUTH TEXAS FARMERS MAKE A COMEBACK?
The answer to this question is tough. In one respect, a switch from La Niña to El Niño should lead to rainier conditions in the years to come. Rainfall and a rising aquifer would most certainly take some pressure off farmers.
Still, the damage may already be done. Farms are disappearing, and fewer and fewer young people are opting to go into farming. For lack of a better idiom, it’ll be tough row to hoe for farmers going forward.
″It’s just a scary time to be farming right now," said Cargil.