Political science expert breaks down new poll showing Gov. Abbott with 11-point lead over O’Rourke

UT Austin’s Texas Politics Project Poll reveals solidified base of support for both candidates, UTSA political science professor says

SAN ANTONIO – The Texas Politics Project at the University of Austin released a new poll Friday, three days before the first day of early voting. 

The latest numbers show Gov. Greg Abbott with an 11% lead over gubernatorial opponent former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke.

According to the poll, more than half of Republican voters agreed that immigration and border security are the most important. Democrats’ priorities are more dispersed between abortion, health care, gun violence and climate change.

“So the question is, ‘Are Texans going to essentially vote the way they voted the past?” said Jon Taylor, political science expert and professor at the University of Texas at San Antonio.

He explained the poll shows a solidified base of support for both candidates and a “snapshot” of numbers that cannot predict the future.

“It comes down to independent voters. That block of independent voters seem right now to be leaning more toward Abbott than O’Rourke. Next week, there could be another poll that all of a sudden shows Abbott with a four-point lead,” Taylor said.

Early voting starts on Monday and ends on Nov. 4.

Election day is Nov. 8.

Click here to view the KSAT Voter Guide.

Find the latest Vote 2022 coverage from KSAT here

About the Authors

Adam Barraza is a photojournalist at KSAT 12 and an El Paso native. He interned at KVIA, the local ABC affiliate, while still in high school. He then moved to San Antonio and, after earning a degree from San Antonio College and the University of the Incarnate Word, started working in news. He’s also a diehard Dodgers fan and an avid sneakerhead.

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