1 week until Election Day, here’s where things stand in big Senate races

Control of the Senate will likely come down to 5 states

(AP Photo/Mike Stewart, File) (Mike Stewart, Copyright 2022 The Associated Press. All rights reserved)

We’re officially in the one-week countdown until Election Day, and has been the case all summer, most of the attention is on a handful of Senate races that will determine which party controls that chamber, and thus shape legislation for years.

Of note, every single seat in the House of Representatives is up for grabs, and projections by pundits still see Republicans gaining a majority once Election Day is over.

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Because of that, much of the focus has shifted to the Senate, specifically a few select races that will decide control.

Here’s a breakdown of the latest in those races, listed in alphabetical order by state.


In a contest between incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly and Republican challenger Blake Masters, a venture capitalist executive, Kelly currently has a 6-point lead, according to a recent New York Times-Siena College poll.

This race has been viewed as leaning toward Kelly throughout the summer, but Masters has made some incremental gains and isn’t completely out of the picture yet despite Kelly’s lead, since the same poll found 49% of voters in the state prefer Republicans to control the Senate.


A tight race all summer between Democratic incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican challenger Herschel Walker, a former Heisman Trophy winner and NFL star, has only gotten tighter.

The two are in a dead heat as we head to the final stretch, according to a poll by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

The New York Times-Siena College Poll had Warnock with a 3-point lead, but there is a 4.8% margin for error.


Another seat the Democrats are furiously trying to hang on to, incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is in a virtual tie with Republican challenger Adam Laxalt, a former attorney general in Nevada. The New York Times-Siena College poll had each candidate at 47%.


In recent weeks, this race has become one to watch because it has gotten tighter. Democratic nominee John Fetterman still has a 5-point lead over Republican challenger Mehmet Oz, according to the New York Times-Siena College poll, but it’s a lead that has gotten less comfortable.

This race became more into light since Fetterman, who is recovering from a stroke suffered in May, seemed to struggle on-stage during a debate last week. But voters are still viewing him favorably.


A close race throughout the summer, this has started to become a lot less stressful for Republicans and the focus of last-ditch efforts by Democrats.

Incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson had a 6-point lead over Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes in an October poll conducted by Marquette University Law School, while handicapper Nate Silver said Barnes only has a 24% chance to win, according to The Hill.

Knowing how the tide was turning toward Johnson, the Democrats had former President Barack Obama campaign for Barnes last week.

About the Author

Keith is a member of Graham Media Group's Digital Content Team, which produces content for all the company's news websites.

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