It’s been a rough few years for rain in and around the Alamo City.
Bexar County has been in some level of drought since January 2022, and San Antonio hasn’t seen significantly above-average rainfall since 2018.
As we look ahead to 2026, there are some early indications that our weather pattern could flip from La Niña to El Niño by the end of the year.
Could this bring much-needed drought relief to San Antonio? Possibly.
KEY POINTS:
- A switch from La Niña to El Niño is likely by Winter 2026-2027
- El Niño usually brings more rain to Texas
- It doesn’t guarantee more rain
WHAT IS EL NIÑO/LA NIÑA?
It’s a boy, and it’s a girl. That’s it.
That is the literal translation for a natural weather pattern that happens in the Pacific Ocean.
In order to understand El Niño (and La Niña, for that matter), we first need to touch on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
ENSO is the climate pattern involving changing sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Warming and cooling cycles of ENSO affect weather patterns across the United States and also impact rainfall distribution in the tropics.
- El Niño: The warming cycle of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean waters. Winds at the surface, which typically blow from east to west, weaken and can even start blowing in the opposite direction. This allows ocean waters to warm, leading to El Niño conditions.
- La Niña: The cooling cycle of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean waters. Opposite of El Niño, surface winds strengthen and shift the warm surface water farther west at a stronger rate. To replace that warm water, cold water from below then rises to the surface, creating cooler sea-surface temperatures which lead to La Niña conditions.
- Neutral: Neither El Niño or La Niña conditions. Sea-surface temperatures in an ENSO-Neutral cycle are close to average.
WHY IS THE DROUGHT SO BAD IN SAN ANTONIO?
As mentioned earlier, we’ve been in continual drought in Bexar County for four years. A big reason for that? La Niña.
During La Niña, the weather-making jet stream is pushed north and away from Texas. This usually means less rain than average for our area, especially in the winter.
This particular dry stretch is largely due to a persistent La Niña weather pattern for nearly three years: from July 2020 to February 2023. That’s what some climatologists have called a “triple-dip” La Niña.
Since the triple-dip La Niña ended in 2023, things haven’t improved much for San Antonio and South Central Texas. We’re still in desperate need for rain.
EL NIÑO USUALLY BRINGS TEXAS MORE RAIN
During an El Niño winter, the weather-making jet stream is in a much better position for rain in Texas, pulling in even more moisture from the Pacific Ocean.
In El Niño, wetter than average weather is possible. However, this is not a guarantee.
In fact, we switched from La Niña to El Niño briefly from mid-2023 to early 2024.
During this time, San Antonio and South Texas did receive some rain relief but not enough to eliminate drought completely. The rain deficit from the “triple-dip” La Niña was too much to overcome.
A switch to El Niño thumbs the scale in our favor for rain, but it does not promise complete drought elimination.
CHANCE OF EL NIÑO
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), we will likely be moving out of La Niña this spring. There is a high chance (60%) for a switch to El Niño by the fall.
The switch, at least, offers some hope for more rain by the end of the year.
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