Robust growth projected for San Antonio region after pandemic, planners say

Projections show southern Bexar and eastern Comal Counties will see most job growth

SAN ANTONIO – New projections for the San Antonio region are telling a familiar story -- explosive growth is likely to continue over the next few decades.

Planners with the Alamo Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) presented the latest projections to the MPO’s transportation policy board Monday afternoon.

The updated projections will factor into the MPO’s next long-term transportation plan -- Mobility 2050.

“The process for forecasting future growth in population and employment is not an exact science, and it’s important to remember that, because we don’t have a crystal ball, we are doing the very best that we can,” said Travis Nedrich, regional transportation modeler with the Alamo Area MPO.

Nevertheless, the demographic committee kept an optimistic forecast in place based on the region’s strong job and population growth before the pandemic.

The population of the San Antonio metro area is expected to top four million people by 2050. Bexar County’s population alone is expected to increase to 3,353,060 people by 2050, more than one million people more than who live in the county now.

Comal County is projected to pass Guadalupe County in population by 2040. The Alamo Area MPO divides the region into 25 sectors, and the Northwest Bexar County sector is projected to continue to lead the area in population and jobs.

But the sector where jobs are expected to grow fastest is Southern Bexar County.

“We’re expecting a lot of growth from the Texas A&M campus, the Toyota plant, and we’re expecting those areas, those jobs, to spawn a lot of extra growth,” Nedrich said.

Demographers expect robust job growth in Eastern Comal County as well, and that area is projected to continue its strong population growth. The Boerne/Fair Oaks Ranch sector will also see “tremendous” and “unprecedented” growth, according to the projections.

The team will use the next several months to incorporate the new estimates into new travel demand modeling, projecting where new road or transit capacity may be needed in the coming decades.

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About the Author

Samuel King anchors traffic during GMSA and reports on transportation and mobility issues across the San Antonio region. He joined the KSAT 12 news team in 2020 from KUT in Austin. Samuel was born in Queens, spent time growing up in South Alabama and graduated from the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University.

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