Believe it or not, hurricane season is just around the corner. It officially begins on June 1 and lasts until Nov. 30.
Ahead of each season, forecasts that include the number of named storms expected to occur in a season are released. These forecasts also include the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes expected.
As a reminder, a named storm is any tropical storm or hurricane. Tropical depressions do not get names.
Here are the forecasts for this year:
Colorado State’s Forecast
Overall, Colorado State’s forecast suggests tropical cyclone development and activity will be above average in 2022. Specifically, researchers expect the total number of named storms to be around 19, while the seasonal average is 14. Approximately nine hurricanes are expected, with four being major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5).
NOAA’s forecast reflects numbers similar to the Colorado State forecast, with 14 to 21 named storms expected and around three to six major hurricanes. NOAA believes this season has a 65% chance of producing above average tropical development.
How are forecasts made?
A big factor in hurricane season forecasts is the El Nino-Southern Oscillation -- or the status of El Nino or La Nina. Through summer and fall of 2022, La Nina is forecast to continue. This will lead to less wind shear in the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean, which helps tropical cyclones develop and strengthen.
Another factor to consider is sea surface temperature, or water temperature. Warmer-than-average waters in the Atlantic basin could play a role in more tropical cyclone activity over the course of the 2022 hurricane season.
While seasonal forecasts like these can help paint a broad picture of what a hurricane season could look like, it’s important to keep in mind that it only takes one storm to greatly affect a region. Regardless of a forecast, it’s important that those who live in areas prone to tropical cyclone activity -- like the Texas Gulf Coast -- be prepared when hurricane season rolls around.
2022 Tropical Cyclone Names
A new hurricane season means a new list of names! Did your name make the list?
WATCH: Meteorologist Sarah Spivey breaks down the different types of tropical systems ⬇️
To get prepared for the upcoming hurricane season, be sure to bookmark our hurricane page or download the KSAT Hurricane Tracker App. You can also find your local forecast anytime on the KSAT Weather page.