Christmas week in San Antonio will likely be chilly! But a white Christmas? That’ll still take a miracle...

Odds favor colder than average temperatures for Christmas Eve & Christmas Day

Temperatures will be colder than average around Christmas this year. (KSAT)

By now, you’ve probably heard rumors or seen some posts on social media about the weather around Christmas in San Antonio. These posts and rumors have hinted at several inches of snow on the ground for Christmas Eve & Christmas Day. Not so fast! It’ll still take a “Christmas Miracle” to see a white Christmas in South Central Texas this year.

Still, that cup of cocoa may taste extra sweet and the cracklin’ fire may warm the soul a little more as Christmas week is expected to be colder than average.

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The strongest cold front yet this season is expected to arrive on Thursday, so expect temperatures to take a nose dive, but this won’t be like the freeze of February 2021.

We anticipate San Antonio’s first freeze of the season to come Friday morning with temperatures dipping into lower 20s, but sunshine should warm us into the lower 40s by the afternoon. Thereafter, temperatures should gradually rise a bit, but you’ll still feel the chill Christmas Eve and Christmas Day with a morning freeze both days. However, afternoon temperatures will rise above freezing and likely make it well into the 40s, which is about 20° below average.


A “white Christmas” is defined as 1 inch of snow or more on the ground on Christmas morning. Not to be a Grinch, but the chance for this to happen in San Antonio is 0.10%. That’s higher than the lotto, but nothing to get our hopes up for.

So why has there been so much chatter about a white Christmas in San Antonio this year? More than 12 days before Christmas, some folks on social media posted a picture of the American forecast computer model, called the GFS, which showed several inches of snow on the ground on Christmas morning.

Just the potential of a white Christmas is exciting, but these posts are misleading and inaccurate. In fact, a day later, the very same computer model showed no snow on the ground on Christmas morning.

Trusting computers for weather several days ahead of time is not a good idea. This is because computer models beyond 5 days are not reliable when it comes to fine details like wintry precipitation and snowfall amounts. Beyond 7-10 days, these computer models simply cannot forecast the weather. The exception to this is that computers can hint at broad, general weather patterns beyond 7-10 days — like the probability of a colder-than-average Christmas this year.


A white Christmas has never been recorded in San Antonio. However, in 2004, it was close! Those in Corpus Christi, Victoria, and the Rio Grande Valley woke up to a Christmas miracle. A foot of snow fell in Victoria, Texas! Below is a satellite image of snow on the ground from that magical day, courtesy of the National Weather Service.

Visible satellite image from Christmas morning, 2004 (Copyright 2022 by KSAT - All rights reserved.)


No matter what happens with the weather, you can count on us to bring you an honest, accurate forecast. As we near Christmas week, fine details like temperatures and yes — even precipitation — will come into focus, and our viewers will be the first to know.

About the Author

Sarah Spivey is a San Antonio native who grew up watching KSAT. She has been a proud member of the KSAT Weather Authority Team since 2017. Sarah is a Clark High School and Texas A&M University graduate. She previously worked at KTEN News. When Sarah is not busy forecasting, she enjoys hanging out with her husband and cat, and playing music.

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