NOAA releases 2024 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, calls for an ‘above-normal’ season

Contributing factors include near-record warm ocean temperatures and less wind in the Atlantic

Both NOAA and Colorado State University are calling for an above-normal season

Just over a week from the official start of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on June 1, forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have released their outlook for the upcoming season.

In a press release Thursday morning, NOAA officials stated that there is an 85% chance for an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season, and a 5% chance for a below-normal season, calling for the following:

  • Named Storms: 17 - 25
  • Hurricanes: 8 -13
  • Major Hurricanes (category 3 or higher): 4 - 7

Forecasters credit this outlook to near-record warm ocean temperatures, lowered trade winds and less shear in the Atlantic, along with the development of La Niña conditions in the Pacific.

La Niña often lowers wind shear in the tropics, and warmer ocean temperatures can lead to additional fuel for storm development.

Officials also predict an above-normal African monsoon, which is responsible for producing waves of energy that come off the coast of Africa that can develop into tropical systems under the right conditions.

This is the second forecast that calls for an above-average season. Officials with Colorado State University released their outlook back in April, calling for the following:

  • Named Storms: 23
  • Hurricanes: 11
  • Major Hurricanes (category 3 or higher) 5

While these forecasts do call for more storms than what is considered ‘normal’, it’s important to note that this doesn’t necessarily mean that an above-average number of storms will make a direct landfall in the United States. However, it only takes one storm to make a significant impact.

Hurricane season officially runs through November 30. You can count on Your Weather Authority to keep you updated over the next several months!

About the Author

Meteorologist Mia Montgomery joined the KSAT Weather Authority Team in September 2022. As a Floresville native, Mia grew up in the San Antonio area and always knew that she wanted to return home. She previously worked as a meteorologist at KBTX in Bryan-College Station and is a fourth-generation Aggie.

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