What is the ACTUAL chance of a ‘white Christmas’ in San Antonio and the Hill Country?

San Antonio has never officially recorded snow on Christmas Day

We’re still a few weeks away from Christmas, but — as happens nearly every year — social media rumors are already swirling about a possible snowy Christmas. Not to be a Grinch, but it’ll take a Christmas Miracle to see a white Christmas in South Central Texas this year.

WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF A WHITE CHRISTMAS IN SAN ANTONIO?

Chances of a white Christmas nationally (Copyright 2023 by KSAT - All rights reserved.)

A “white Christmas” is defined as 1 inch of snow or more on the ground on Christmas morning. The chance for this to happen in San Antonio is a measly 0.10% — or 1 in 1,000. That’s higher than the lotto, but nothing to get our hopes up for.

To put that in context, a 0.10% chance is the same as rolling a 1 on a hypothetical 1,000-sided die.

For a real-life example, you’d have the same odds of cracking open an egg from the grocery store and finding a double-yoked egg.

So again, it’s not impossible that San Antonio will eventually have a white Christmas, the odds are just very, very low.

HAS THERE EVER BEEN A WHITE CHRISTMAS IN SAN ANTONIO?

A white Christmas has never been recorded in San Antonio. However, in 2004, it was close! Those in Corpus Christi, Victoria, and the Rio Grande Valley woke up to a Christmas miracle. A foot of snow fell in Victoria, Texas! Below is a satellite image of snow on the ground from that magical day, courtesy of the National Weather Service.

Visible satellite image from Christmas morning, 2004 (Copyright 2022 by KSAT - All rights reserved.)

SAN ANTONIO’S CHRISTMAS WEATHER HISTORY

Christmas weather history in San Antonio last 10 years. (Copyright 2023 by KSAT - All rights reserved.)

Reliable weather records for San Antonio Christmases date back to 1885. Temperatures can vary wildly from year to year. Just take a look at the past 10 Christmases in San Antonio! See chart above.

When looking at the 30-year average, the morning low on Christmas Day is near 40° with a high in the low 60s. Christmas tends to be dry.

Even though we’ve never seen snow on Christmas day, it has been plenty cold. San Antonio’s coldest Christmas on record was in 1983 when we had a low of 11° and a high of only 30°. The Alamo City’s SECOND COLDEST Christmas was just last year, in 2022! The low was 22° and the high was 50°.

San Antonio’s warmest Christmas was in 1955 when the high reached 90°. But the THIRD WARMEST Christmas was more recent — in 2016 with a high of 80°.

YOUR WEATHER AUTHORITY HAS YOU COVERED

No matter what happens with the weather this holiday season, you can count on us to bring you an honest, accurate forecast. As we near Christmas week, fine details like temperatures and yes — even precipitation — will come into focus, and our viewers will be the first to know.


About the Author:

Sarah Spivey is a San Antonio native who grew up watching KSAT. She has been a proud member of the KSAT Weather Authority Team since 2017. Sarah is a Clark High School and Texas A&M University graduate. She previously worked at KTEN News. When Sarah is not busy forecasting, she enjoys hanging out with her husband and cat, and playing music.