The poll of 619 registered Bexar County voters marks the first publicly released survey of San Antonio-area voters for the 2020 presidential race.
The Democratic ticket of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris pulled 52% while the GOP ticket of President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence had support from 35% of those polled.
Another 13% say they remain undecided.
The polling results are relatively similar to the outcome of the presidential race in 2016 in Bexar County, when Democrat Hillary Clinton won 54% of the vote while Trump pulled in 41%. Statewide, Trump won Texas over Clinton by a margin of 52-43 in 2016.
Texas' 38 electoral votes, the second-most among any state, will be vital for Trump’s reelection campaign. It would be nearly impossible for Trump to win the election without the Lone Star State’s winner-take-all votes. Republicans have won Texas in every presidential election since Jimmy Carter’s 1976 campaign.
The demographics of the newly released Bexar Facts poll are illuminating: Biden leads among voters under 50, voters of color and women, while Trump leads among older white men, according to the poll.
For example, 63% of likely women voters polled by Bexar Facts say they will vote for Biden, while 44% of men said they’d vote for Trump.
Biden has the support of 60% of voters under the age of 50, according to the poll.
Nearly half of white voters (49%) say they’ll vote for Trump with 41% voting for Biden and 10% still undecided. Among voters of color, 63% support Biden while 23% support Trump and 14% are undecided.
Nine percent of voters who identify as Republicans say they are either undecided (3%) or voting for Biden (6%). Only 3% of Democrats say they are undecided.
Biden leads among independents with 42% compared to Trump’s 30%.
The largest bloc of undecided voters is independents, where 28% of the electorate are up for grabs. That’s followed by 20% of undecided voters between the ages of 50 and 64.
The poll was conducted among registered Bexar County voters from Sept. 17-21 by phone and online in English (98%) and Spanish (2%) and has a 4% margin of error.
KSAT will publish more results from the poll — from local propositions and approval ratings to the biggest issues facing San Antonio and evolving public opinion on the coronavirus pandemic and policing — in the coming days in our Bexar Facts section.
See the full poll and find more information about it on the Bexar Facts website. There, you can also take the survey for yourself (those results will be recorded but not reflected in the scientific results.)
Stay up to date with the latest election news and resources on our Vote 2020 page.