Over a month into the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, one of the two sources for seasonal outlooks has issued another update to their forecast, now calling for an “above-normal” season.
With the new update released July 6, forecasters at Colorado State University have increased their numbers to the following:
- Named Storms: 18 (including 4 that have already formed)
- Hurricanes: 9
- Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or Higher): 4
CSU researchers stated that the record warming of sea surface temperatures is “the primary reason” for the forecasted increase in Atlantic activity, combating the fact that El Niño conditions are present, which would typically lead to fewer storms forming in the Atlantic Basin.
For context, the average number (taken from the 1991-2020 period) of named storms if 14, with 7 becoming hurricanes and 3 becoming major hurricanes.
Here are previously-issued forecast outlooks from Colorado State University since the first outlook was issued back in April:
It’s also important to note that according to the other trusted source for hurricane seasonal outlooks, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), is calling for a near-normal season with the following numbers:
- Named Storms: 12-17
- Hurricanes: 5-9
- Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or Higher): 1-4
In June — the first official month of hurricane season — three tropical storms formed within the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. This activity followed an unnamed subtropical storm that formed in January.
What changed the forecasted numbers?
Over the past three months, all forecasted parameters have increased due to changing oceanic and atmospheric factors.
When calculating hurricane activity, scientists at CSU factor in sea surface temperatures, the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Saharan dust.
Sea surface temperatures for the Gulf of Mexico
Water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are approximately 1.5° - up to 2.5° in some areas - higher than the 38-year average, according to NOAA’s Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly product.
As of July 6, 2023, sea surface temperatures within the Gulf were approximately 90°F.
Effects of Saharan dust
As Saharan dust travels across the Atlantic Ocean, it can help reduce sea surface temperatures. The Gulf of Mexico has yet to receive significant shading from the dust this year. Dry air is also associated with traveling dust and is supposed to suppress tropical activity as well.
Regardless of the factors in place proving to be detrimental to tropical storm formation, rising sea surface temperatures will be the cause of increased tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico.
Scientists from Colorado State University advise coastal residents, “it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season.”
- Keep up with the latest hurricane season with the KSAT Hurricane Tracker App.